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Analysis: Does Robin charge you too much for house upgrades and how I concluded she is a diety.

Analysis: Does Robin charge you too much for house upgrades and how I concluded she is a diety.
Ever since a Let’s Play got me into Stardew Valley, I’ve fallen in love with the world. It’s something special, a place to relax and get away from the world’s problems. Here, you can pay bills with the sweat of your own brow, make friends, fall in love, and can escape the drudgery of modern life. It’s magical in its own way.
I’ve played hundreds of hours over multiple save files. I’ve been wondering one thing just recently, however. I remember when I first asked Robin for house upgrades and the sheer bowel-emptying amount she asked for. Seriously? That much for a kitchen? Now that I haven’t left my house for the past several weeks, fear human contact, and have deep dived into the paranormal, I’m overthinking something constantly: with regards to modern housework, does Robin the carpenter over or under charge you for her work?
To figure this out, it’s going to require a fair bit of math and a lot of guesswork. I’m going to have to establish a lot of ground rules but I’m going to try and be as accurate to real world costs as I can. We need to learn four things:
  • What year does the game take place so we can calculate accurate inflation?
  • What is the square footage of the house and its upgrades?
  • What is the exchange value of gold, the game’s currency?
  • What is the cost of Robin’s labor?
Let’s tackle the first. To do this, I scoured around to look for modern conveniences. Primarily, I found these five:
  • Leah mentions she has a laptop
  • The carpentry shop sells Plasma screen TVs.
  • There is what appears to be an old Apple computer monitor in Harvey’s clinic and Maru’s room.
  • Sam has an electric guitar and what looks like a plasma screen computer monitor in his room.
  • In Mr. Qi’s casino, the slot machines do not have a lever. This is important because that gives us a firm earliest date of 1963.
Another interesting factoid is the number of Cathode-ray TVs you see in Stardew Valley. These are the precursors to plasma screens, which were in turn succeeded by LCD screen TVs. Additionally, a large number of your starter houses comes preequipped with Cathode-ray TVs. Granted, this may be because the farmhouse was abandoned for many years before you came along, but there exists another such TV in 1 River Road where we often see George watching his shows. I will concede that George and Evelyn are quite old and may not have the tech savvy nature of Sebastian to get something more modern, so that can’t be an accurate measurement. Plus, Alex’s mental acumen is a little... questionable.
As for crafting recipes, there really isn’t anything worth talking about. Magic items I won’t talk about because it has no real world comparison; that also throws out the wizard shop’s items. The furniture catalog has nothing of note to pinepoint a date, and nor does Pierre’s General Store, Joja Mart, Joja Warehouse, the Blacksmith, Stardrop Saloon, or Marnie’s ranch. Leah doesn’t mention anything about her laptop, so that is of little help.
So the casino gives us a low bound. Although manufacturing of the plasma screen TV stopped in the US in 2014, plasma screen TVs were losing their market shares around 2007 and factories were shutting down. As you can buy them like hotcakes and fill a shed with them, 2007 is our upper bound.
The price for plasma screens was quite pricey for residential homes. 1995 was the year 42 inch plasma screens became commercial, and some had home installation priced somewhere around US$15,000. Still not quite the size of the queen or king sized bed you and your spouse have (the size of the plasma screen in the game), but sixty inch plasma screen TVs were sold around the year 2000, and that is plenty big. Given the size of the screen in the game is roughly three tiles just like your bed, I think it’s safe to say this is around the size of our estimate. Our rough year range is now 1995 to 2007. Let’s split the difference and say the game takes place in 2001.
We have our year.
To calculate the size of our farmhouse, we need some baseline measurement. Luckily, the game is pixelated so we can be quite accurate in our measurements. Unluckily, we have no confirmed height of anything, so we have to intuit some things. Reddit user asparagus made this excellent size chart, so while I can just use that and save myself a lot of work, let us do some measurements of our own and then measure the farmhouse with both this method and asparagus’ method.
First, there is the height of plants, but those can vary widely. For instance, you can pot prickly pear cactuses in your farmhouse, but their height can vary anywhere between one and seven feet. Plant height is a no go. The average height of a minifridge is forty three inches (109 cm) tall, so unless you are a dwarf, that’s not right either. The fences are also a good starting point, as most agricultural fencing stands at four feet (1.2 m).
Here we don’t have to do much; all fences are forty eight pixels in height. Four feet equals out to forty eight inches (121.92 cm). It doesn’t get more perfect than that!
Trigger warning: incoming math.
Now comes the really tricky part: getting the dimensions of each iteration of your farmhouse, and squinting at my computer screen like a mole in order to count pixels; we must include walls as well as that is included in square footage. Our first iteration has pixel measurements of 704x496. Add in the doorway (136x64pixels), and then we’ll still convert for square feet. 704 * 496 + (136 * 64) = 318,452 pixels/sq, which (dividing by 12^2) converts to 2,211.47 ft/sq. Damn, we’re well on our way for most modern mansions.
I have to have messed something up (205.45 m/sq, btw). The average firebox (the inside of a fireplace where you burn wood) tends to be around 32x20 inches (81.28x50.8 cm). Ours is... 72x40. Twice as large. I also haven’t even begun to calculate the farmhouse’s height because Robin is beginning to scare me.
Alright, new plan, we’re going with asparagus. I married Haley and took her measurements. She is 104 pixels tall, and since she is 65 inches (165.1 cm) according to asparagus, that gives us a measurement of .625 inches/pixel (1.5875 cm/pixel).
Side note, I really want some Twizlers right now.
So instead of having pixels as at a 1:1 ratio, we have something a little more lenient, but things are looking a little... grim. We’ll have to convert each individual amount, so we have (704 * .625) * (496 * .625) + ((136 * 64) * .625^2) for 124,395.31 inches/sq, 863.86 ft/sq., 80.25 m/sq. But still, we haven’t even begun to calculate the actual volume of our farmhouse yet, so these numbers are going to explode.
I’m beginning to think Robin is Hestia. Yoba is not the only deity in this town.
Alright, calculating the rest of the floor spaces is a little boring so let’s speedrun this.
Wall height for the farmhouse is 140 pixels, so (140 * .625) * 124,395.31 inches/sq / 12^3 = 6,298.95 ft^3 (178.36 m^3) for the farmhouse, and 25,800.51 ft^3 (730.58 m^3) using my method.
Just... let’s move on.
Second iteration has me doing a fair bit more work.
Wall height is 135 pixels, and rightmost—wait, the walls are shorter? Weird. Anyway, the rightmost room has dimensions of 486 for width by 375 for depth (and the same cubby dimensions), giving us cuboid dimensions of 24,603,750 pixels^3, which converts to 14,238.28 ft^3 (403.18 m^3), and 3,476.14 ft^3 (82.83 m^3) using asparagus' method
Middle corridor has a dimensional width of 42 pixels by 87 depth, giving us a total of 285.47 ft^3 (8.08 m^3), and 69.69 ft^3 (1.97 m^3) using asparagus' method.
Leftmost room (the kitchen) has a width of 870 and depth of 375, with a doorway of 136x64. That gives us a cuboid area of 314,019.38 ft^3 (29,173.11 m^3), and 6,388.74 ft^3 (180.91 m^3) using asparagus' method.
That gives us a grand total for a tier two home of...
... 328,543.13 ft^3 (29,584.37 m^3) using my method and
... 9,934.58 ft^3 (281.31 m^3) using asparagus' method.
So Robin added at a minimum 3,635.63 cubic feet to your house in three days by herself. Even if you extend the days and months to roughly align with our own calendar, that would be a mere nine days. How much powdered starfruit did she snort in order to do that by herself? I 100% believe Emily is the town’s dealer. I didn’t even calculate the length of the farmhouse loft. It’s doable, and even though you can’t enter it in the game, a bigger farmhouse means a bigger loft judging by the look of it.
Anyway, I’m not going to calculate the loft area right now. I’m not going to calculate the other tiers of your farmhouse either, even though that was my intent when I started this analysis. The math is easy enough, but it gets boring to type, and no doubt to read. Plus, I’m a little stunned by Robin's carpentry acumen. C’mon Robin, stop upgrading my house. Exercise with the girls, dance with your husband, smoke some weed, I dunno, RELAX.
But in a strange way, it makes a weird sort of sense. Pretty much no one plays the game with auto-run turned off, but do so for a moment. See how fast you move. That is your normal pace, and auto-run is you, an Olympian god, sprinting around town every second of every day, helping the shit out of everyone whether they want it or not, snorting the same starfruit mixture you got from Robin to keep going, who may have gotten it from Linus (my money is still on Emily). We’ve become so accustomed to seeing the run animation as our default I almost didn’t realize it doesn’t translate to modern life. The boards in your house, I almost took those as your normal 2x4 planks of wood (which actually measure 1.5x3.5, the world lies to me). They are not. They are almost the width of your entire body, and your walking pace (sorry I can’t get an exact pixel measurement) covers roughly one and a half boards, a similar length to a normal human gait. The art style fooled even me until now, but your house is massive.
Let’s just answer our other two questions. What is the exchange rate? Calculating the exchange rate of a fictional world is always tricky as they have different concepts of rarities, but I’ll give it the ol’ college try. Once again, I can’t do anything with magic. Let’s first list some things of note:
  • Iridium is fairly easy to get around Stardew Valley once you are able, and that is a rare and valuable metal, with a current price of US$1,510 per troy ounce.
  • You can purchase a golden column to place on your farm, and gold has a current price of US$1,643 per troy ounce
  • Conversely, while the first two are rare and valuable metals, crops such as corn are valued at prices like 150g, a very unusually high amount if exchanged 1:1 to USA dollars.
  • Going back to plasma screen TVs, we can use its price history and then convert currencies to Stardew Valley gold.
Now you may be tempted to say we can’t translate iridium and gold’s prices to real world market values, and normally you may be right, but there are some extenuating circumstances in the game: the town is right next to two very large mines. It is even a plot point once you clear the glittering boulder that the water carries ore from deep inside the mountain. Yes, gold and iridium are valuable, but your location to ore veins is important; gold and iridium may be uncommon resources but you have access to very specific places where they are more common, otherwise known as the scarcity heuristic). This also explains two facts about iridium: discounting magic, iridium is quite rare in the game, just like real life. Secondly, Clint’s prices make a lot more sense not only because it’s endgame material, but because iridium is super dense and has a very high melting point, thus making it a very difficult material to work with.
But by far the biggest challenge of this question is figuring out whether or not items you produce factor in the cost of your labor or not. For instance, lace is made of simple materials that even in the days of Victorian England, it was easy to get. However because lace was so time consuming to make, it could command absurd prices. Thus, one of the first things we need to discover is whether or not the game takes into account cost of labor or not.
So I am going to take you all back to school and talk about someone who’s old and dead: Adam Smith. It was he who talked about the cost of labor in his book The Wealth of Nations, and because of that, I bring up this particular line:
“...From century to century, corn is a better measure than silver, because, from century to century, equal quantities of corn will command the same quantity of labour more nearly than equal quantities of silver.
Why did I mention corn above? This is why. Prices may vary, but agriculture has been around for thousands of years and the cost of a farmer’s labor equals about the same.
According to Dylan Baumann, Stardew Valley corn plants have a profit value of 535 gold per plant. Our corn plant profits are about as high as they can get without adding something new into the mix, and we don’t want that yet.
Let’s set some ground rules:
  • Cultivatable farm space on the standard farm equals out to 3,427 spaces, but we’ll round that down to 3,350 for iridium sprinklers, iridium watering can, and scarecrows, equaling maximum farming with no loss of crop.
  • We’ll keep Dylan’s ground rules, so no fertilizer.
  • No preserves, jams, wine, and juices.
  • No farming efficiencies and crop selling bonuses.
  • No use of the greenhouse to grow crops outside of the growing season.
If you plant the entire farm with corn and stop harvesting on Fall day 28 when the growing season ends, that lets you harvest a total of 11 ears of corn per plant. Multiply that by 3,350, we get a total of 36,850 ears of corn for your entire farm. Corn is measured in bushels, and a bushel of corn can be anywhere between 40 and 60 ears of corn, but we’ll say you really pack it in for 60, meaning your growing season for corn produces 36,850 / 60 corn for a total of 614.17 bushels per year.
The USDA has a 2001 labor value of corn at US$2.92 per acre (and that matches the Iowa labor statistic), and using 156 bushels per acre, that brings our labor cost per bushel at... US$00.02. That’s a real pittance. Considering bushels of corn retailed around $2.11 per bushel in 2001, that is an incredible markup of 184.85 times.
We’re almost done with the dreaded math, I swear.
Corn retails at 100g apiece in Stardew Valley(You get 50 gold from Pierre, so he has a 100% markup), meaning the labor cost should be around 184.85 times less that amount, meaning it takes about 0.54 gold to make one ear of corn.
Your average US farmers salary $55,000 and $100,000, and we’ll take the middle of $77,500 for our measurements. Dividing the farmer’s salary by the total ears of corn our farmer grows in Stardew Valley, we get a labor cost per ear of corn in US dollars of $2.10 per ear of corn. Now we multiply this by our markup ratio to get the IRL retail cost of corn in Stardew, getting US$237.08! Damn that better be some good eating! We divide that number by the Stardew Valley retail cost of corn, netting us a real world conversion of gold of, drumroll please, $2.37 US dollars per gold in 2001.
Now just for funzies, let us calculate the actual salary of your famer in Stardew Valley. Multiplying your 36,850 ears of corn by 50 gold (your selling price of gold, not the retail price of 100g), that nets you 1,842,500 gold per growing season. Multiply that by the dollagold conversion we just calculated and your real life gross income comes out to be US$436,672,500.
Give me all of the golden clocks, wizard.
Three questions down, one more to go. Currency conversion was rather tricky because it involved quite a lot of math, but this last question, what is the cost of Robin’s labor, that requires the most assumptions. There’s an easy answer and a hard answer.
Robin’s upgrades, except for the last, require you the farmer to give her resources in addition to gold. The simple answer is you are providing materials in order to keep the raw gold cost down. This means that the first house upgrade, 10,000 gold, is strictly her labor cost as the 450 wood is all the raw materials she needs to build. 3 days * 3 months (to adjust Stardew month lengths to our month lengths) comes out to Robin working an IRL equivalent to 9 days. Taking 10,000 gold / 9 days equals a cost of 1,111.111 gold per day, and considering Robin has snorted enough powdered starfruit to have 20 hour work days, that comes out to 55.56 gold per hour.
Just to be sure, let’s see if the math holds up for the last upgrade. That one requires a cost of 100,000 gold and comes preequipped with 33 casks. You do not provide the resources for the casks, meaning that comes included with the cost. Casks cannot be sold, but the materials required to make them are 20 wood and 1 hardwood, which Robin will provide for the same 100% markup (meaning 4 gold and 30 gold respectively). 4 gold * 30 gold * 33 casks comes out to 3,960 gold. Using the same calculations for the first house iteration, we get (100,000 gold - 3,960) / (3 days * 3 months) / 20 hours for a total of 533.56 gold per hour.
Not even close to our first estimate. We could just average them together for (533.56 + 55.56) / 2 = 294.56 gold, and that would be the easy answer. It would be nice to settle for the easy answer.
Let’s find the hard answer. We are going to calculate labor cost per square footage, and luckily most of the work has been done over the course of several google spreadsheets. To find the cost of materials and money per upgrade volume we get the formula (Upgrade volume - Base Volume) / 10,000 gold. This gives us a grand total of cubic material built per gold of...
...2,573.26 in^3/gold, 30.27 ft^3/gold, 2.89 m^3/gold using my method and
...628.24 in^3/gold, 0.36 ft^3/gold, 0.01 m^3/gold using asparagus’ method.
Let’s see if the math holds up for the basement upgrade and dammit I just realized I got to do more pixel measurements now. Hold on, be back in an hour.
Alright, I’m back. We don’t need to do any subtraction for the previous volume of the house considering the cellar is its own little area, but we still need to subtract the value of the materials used for the casks. The cellar comes out to a grand total of cubic materials built per gold of...
...386.91 in^3/gold, 0.22 ft^3/gold, 0.01 m^3/gold using my method and
...94.46 in^3/gold, 0.05 ft^3/gold, 0.0015 m^3/gold using asparagus’ method.
Huge discrepancy.
Before I get into my reasoning why, let us outline what we know first.
  • We’re pretty sure the game takes place in 2001.
  • We have the exact sizes of each house upgrade calculated with two different methods.
  • We have a certified exchange rate of US$2.37 at that point in time.
  • We have two different methods of calculating the cost of Robin’s labor.
  • The amount of work Robin does during her three(nine?) day job is absolutely obscene.
I come to one conclusion: Robin is a god that has settled down in the world of Stardew Valley.
Here me out. I have three pieces of evidence.
The first is when Robin is hired to take on a house upgrade job no one helps her, not even her husband Demetrius. Your house is right next to hers, so you’re not paying for travel. As we have shown by our calculations above and in the gDoc spreadsheet, that is a massive amount of work. It’s simply not possible for a human to accomplish such a monumental task. Robin claims she built her own home herself with this line from the game...
“Have I told you that I built our house from the ground up? It's definitely been the highlight of my career so far.”
...so we know her carpentry acumen is impressive enough for the job, but she has severely understated her skill. Homeadvisor pegs a house costing anywhere between US$150,000 to US$500,000 (US$102,005.53 to $340,018.44, adjusted for 2001 inflation), but even adjusted for inflation, Robin absolutely underbids the current housing market. Those inflation adjusted values, when converted to gold, come out to a range of 43,040.31g-143,467.70g. Granted, these prices are for a complete house, not adding onto a current house, but even if we half the value you are getting one hell of a discount.
The second piece is Robin’s language. The sheer passion for her work speaks wonders..
“Wood is a wonderful substance... it's versatile, cheap, strong, and each piece has its own unique character!”
...but perhaps she is just passionate about what she does. Many people are, but knowing what we do about how dirt cheap and blindingly fast she works let’s go into more detail about some things, specifically three lines. The first...
“Our little plan worked out well, don't you think? Pam and Penny seem really happy.”
...is said after Pam’s house undergoes an upgrade. “Our” plan? Sure, you are the one that buys the upgrade and Robin has to build it, but I can’t help but feel there is a double meaning behind this language. It is done out of the kindness of Robin’s heart and the materials have to come from somewhere, so she can’t do it for free, but it wasn’t about the money, as we have stated previously. It was about Penny.
Pam is a somewhat contentious person because of slobbish and slovenly nature. She is immediately and irrationally angered when Penny tries to pick the place up. She drinks heavily...
“\sigh*... My mother definitely has a problem with going to the saloon too much. But it's best not to dwell on bad things, right?”*
...doesn’t seem to understand not paying her tab has some consequences, and doesn’t realize what her habits have done to her daughter’s psyche.
Then you, the player come along. Pam is okay with the simple things in life, but you help Penny with her worries and insecurities, and then with you and Robin together, you give Penny everything she needs to help her shed those worries. She has a house that doesn have problems with rain, two friends who look out for her, her mom has a job, and most importantly she has peace of mind and in a world fraught with problems, that is truly priceless.
This is the second line...
“Hey! I heard some weird noises last night, and woke up this morning to find the quarry bridge completely repaired! It's a miracle of woodworking!”
...and it occurs once you offer items to the community center junimos to get the quarry bridge repaired.
It is also a bald-faced lie.
The junimos are good, don’t get me wrong, but we’ve seen what Robin can do with our own two eyes. She is absolutely incredible at her job, and while I may give it to her she has no idea what junimos are or what they are capable of, we have proof that the act of restoring the bridge in one night is not out of the realm of possibility for her. A miracle, yes, but I’m certain she can beat the junimos’ time.
Lastly, there is one quote from her that is just... it opens up some very interesting questions. When she says...
“My parents were bewildered when I told them I wanted to be a carpenter. They were pretty old-fashioned.”
...how old are her parents when they consider carpentry too new-fashioned for them? Carpentry is one of the world’s oldest professions. If they were old-fashioned, why were they bewildered?
This line is just so fascinating to me. Robin is incredibly skilled, but I cannot rationalize carpentry being too newfangled for parents to wrap their head around. Who were they? Where are they from? I know your secrets, Robin, I know your parents are gods, too.
The third and final piece is the contrasting pieces of the world at large. Just like ours, it’s a little depressing. Joja Corp runs dozens of what even Cyberpunk would consider a dataslave farm. The world is flooded with consumerism run amok, Orwellian surveillance, and rampant urbanization. The Ferngill Republic is in the middle of a war with the Gotoro Empire and Kent still suffers PTSD from being in a prisoner of war camp.
Stardew Valley isn’t just a town to retire in, it is a place of respite and healing. There are three confirmed magic users deeply tied to the town’s mystical roots. The bears speak and encourage you to manage the world around you. You are rewarded for restoring balance to the valley by being able to recycle things you don’t need. Your main resource in the game, gold, also doesn’t matter that much; if it ever slips into the negative, nothing bad ever happens. You must just work to raise it back up. There is no lose condition in the game.
In many respects it is similar to the Gaiaism philosophy that all living beings are connected, each relying and depending on each other in order to maintain a peaceful coexistence. You help Shane with his nihilism and depression, Sebastian with his ability to express and accept affection, Sam with his dreams, Kent with his problems, Leah with her ambitions, Haley with her generosity and narcissism, or even simple goals like Penny’s idea of a quiet domestic life.
Whether it is the addicted, lost, or scorned, everyone is welcome and everyone can have a home in Stardew Valley. No one embodies this more than Robin who just wants a simple life. Whether it is her own house or her own boat during the Dance of the Moonlight Jellies, Robin builds it herself. The feel of wood grain, the smell of lacquer, the stickiness of stain, the thrum of the saw, and the bite of the axe. Robin doesn’t charge you nearly enough for your house upgrades because it is not about the money. Woodworking is what she loves and she lives in a place where barterism, kindness, family, and friendship substitute so many of life's modern problems and inconveniences.
Friendship increases in the game aren’t just a measurement of achievements, a means of getting more recipes, or more candles lit on a grave. You are making friends and getting to know these people for who they are and everyone’s life is bettered because of it. The amount of love I’ve seen for Linus is just staggering. Shane, in all of his melancholy and despite him not being a suitor in the original version of the game, is loved by so many. I know some despise Haley, but I love that I was able to show her what kindness can do for people.
You are in a gentle and loving place, and you are loved.
What a better place for a god to reside? A quiet town filled with peace and love, seeped in nature and the old magics of yore. A loving mate, a family to raise. Land to share with those that forage from its bounty. It’s all she needs.
Robin’s role in all of this? She desires neither worship nor admiration. She is just a friend. A god, certainly, but a friend first and foremost who is just settling down in a quiet town looking for a little peace.

https://preview.redd.it/fkugiuh4nwv51.png?width=507&format=png&auto=webp&s=146d3dabaa63c0ce3bfd281712434e9b2a655be8
Image by MagicallyClueless
submitted by doctorsirus to StardewValley [link] [comments]

Player Breaks

I'm hollowed out. I lost a week's salary in 20 minutes last night and I should be completely devastated. I'm not, though. I'm not anything. I tried to give myself some context because money hasn't been real to me for a long time - I didn't lose money, I lost a long weekend away with my friends, or a new fuel pump for my rusted out, piece of shit truck. Maybe I lost the safety net that I could have used to take a few days off, or maybe I lost the Christmas gifts that I wanted to get for my family. It's not working, not this time. This is my normal now, down here in the dregs, and even though the view is pretty awful, I guess I've just gotten used to it. I didn't lose money, I lost trust. I work for a great small business that doesn't survive if I don't do my part, but I called out sick (again) so that I could drive to the casino (again) because the second Monday of the month is payday and a paycheck isn't anything other than a bet I haven't placed yet. I didn't lose money, I've lost myself. I've left my feelings, my entire emotional range, on those tables. I don't care if I win or lose anymore because as long as I have chips in my hand, there is still the possibility - the possibility of an adrenaline rush from a good run, the possibility of a good, deep depression from a bad one. I don't think about possibilities anymore. I don't think about going back to finish my degree, I don't think about getting my own place, I don't think about trying to form any kind of real connections with anyone. I don't think I know how anymore. I'm hollowed out but I'm still here. It doesn't have to be this way.
Today is Day One.
submitted by PlayerBreaks to problemgambling [link] [comments]

How much does Tony Soprano make a year?

This question was asked on the “Talking Sopranos” podcast recently and it got me thinking, how much does a guy in Tony’s position make? Him and his family obviously live an upper class type lifestyle so he must be raking in some serious dough.
At one point in the series a lawyer tells Johnny Sac that he’s worth at around 5 million and I believe they even said Tony’s is in the 5-6 million range as well. In my opinion that seems a bit low, but those are also FBI estimates and a lot of the money Tony makes is unreported. I would say his net worth is closer to 10-12 million (and I’m talking late 90’s, early 2000’s) based off the various schemes he has on the show.
His house is probably worth around 1.5- 2 million, the boat, his salary from Barone, the pork store, Beansy’s pizza stores, the casino, Bada Bing, money from the unions and the Esplanade project, gambling, random Real estate ventures he has with Zellman, various other rackets such as stolen cigarettes, stolen jewelry and suits. As far as I know they never dealt any drugs and I’m sure I’m forgetting a lot of stuff but just based off the stuff I’ve mentioned alone I’m sure he’s pulling in anywhere from 2-5 million a year.
I think it’s also important to remember that him and his family also spend a lot too. Lawyers, hospital bills, property tax and other various expenses on his home, the boat, the cars, AJs private school and Columbia University not to mention they also donate a lot of money to those schools. Living expenses for his family plus Tony himself is always eating out at nice restaurants and probably just spends a lot of money in general on random shit like sports betting, girls, and whatever else is involved in that life. He probably spends just as much as he makes.
What do you guys think? Is Tony’s net worth higher or lower than 10-12 million? Does he make more or less than 2-5 million a year?
submitted by Newports4eva to thesopranos [link] [comments]

Theory: One Stardew Valley villager is secretly a God

Ever since a Let’s Play got me into Stardew Valley, I’ve fallen in love with the world. It’s something special, a place to relax and get away from the world’s problems. Here, you can pay bills with the sweat of your own brow, make friends, fall in love, and can escape the drudgery of modern life. It’s magical in its own way.
I’ve played hundreds of hours over multiple save files. I’ve been wondering one thing just recently, however. I remember when I first asked Robin for house upgrades and the sheer bowel-emptying amount she asked for. Seriously? That much for a kitchen? Now that I haven’t left my house for the past several weeks, fear human contact, and have deep dived into the paranormal, I’m overthinking something constantly: with regards to modern housework, does Robin the carpenter over or under charge you for her work?
To figure this out, it’s going to require a fair bit of math and a lot of guesswork. I’m going to have to establish a lot of ground rules but I’m going to try and be as accurate to real world costs as I can. We need to learn four things:
Let’s tackle the first. To do this, I scoured around to look for modern conveniences. Primarily, I found these five:
Another interesting factoid is the number of Cathode-ray TVs you see in Stardew Valley. These are the precursors to plasma screens, which were in turn succeeded by LCD screen TVs. Additionally, a large number of your starter houses comes preequipped with Cathode-ray TVs. Granted, this may be because the farmhouse was abandoned for many years before you came along, but there exists another such TV in 1 River Road where we often see George watching his shows. I will concede that George and Evelyn are quite old and may not have the tech savvy nature of Sebastian to get something more modern, so that can’t be an accurate measurement. Plus, Alex’s mental acumen is a little... questionable.
As for crafting recipes, there really isn’t anything worth talking about. Magic items I won’t talk about because it has no real world comparison; that also throws out the wizard shop’s items. The furniture catalog has nothing of note to pinepoint a date, and nor does Pierre’s General Store, Joja Mart, Joja Warehouse, the Blacksmith, Stardrop Saloon, or Marnie’s ranch. Leah doesn’t mention anything about her laptop, so that is of little help.
So the casino gives us a low bound. Although manufacturing of the plasma screen TV stopped in the US in 2014, plasma screen TVs were losing their market shares around 2007 and factories were shutting down. As you can buy them like hotcakes and fill a shed with them, 2007 is our upper bound.
The price for plasma screens was quite pricey for residential homes. 1995 was the year 42 inch plasma screens became commercial, and some had home installation priced somewhere around US$15,000. Still not quite the size of the queen or king sized bed you and your spouse have (the size of the plasma screen in the game), but sixty inch plasma screen TVs were sold around the year 2000, and that is plenty big. Given the size of the screen in the game is roughly three tiles just like your bed, I think it’s safe to say this is around the size of our estimate. Our rough year range is now 1995 to 2007. Let’s split the difference and say the game takes place in 2001.
We have our year.
To calculate the size of our farmhouse, we need some baseline measurement. Luckily, the game is pixelated so we can be quite accurate in our measurements. Unluckily, we have no confirmed height of anything, so we have to intuit some things. Reddit user asparagus made this excellent size chart, so while I can just use that and save myself a lot of work, let us do some measurements of our own and then measure the farmhouse with both this method and asparagus’ method.
First, there is the height of plants, but those can vary widely. For instance, you can pot prickly pear cactuses in your farmhouse, but their height can vary anywhere between one and seven feet. Plant height is a no go. The average height of a minifridge is forty three inches (109 cm) tall, so unless you are a dwarf, that’s not right either. The fences are also a good starting point, as most agricultural fencing stands at four feet (1.2 m).
Here we don’t have to do much; all fences are forty eight pixels in height. Four feet equals out to forty eight inches (121.92 cm). It doesn’t get more perfect than that!
Trigger warning: incoming math.
Now comes the really tricky part: getting the dimensions of each iteration of your farmhouse, and squinting at my computer screen like a mole in order to count pixels; we must include walls as well as that is included in square footage. Our first iteration has pixel measurements of 704x496. Add in the doorway (136x64pixels), and then we’ll still convert for square feet. 704 * 496 + (136 * 64) = 318,452 pixels/sq, which (dividing by 12^2) converts to 2,211.47 ft/sq. Damn, we’re well on our way for most modern mansions.
I have to have messed something up (205.45 m/sq, btw). The average firebox (the inside of a fireplace where you burn wood) tends to be around 32x20 inches (81.28x50.8 cm). Ours is... 72x40. Twice as large. I also haven’t even begun to calculate the farmhouse’s height because Robin is beginning to scare me.
Alright, new plan, we’re going with asparagus. I married Haley and took her measurements. She is 104 pixels tall, and since she is 65 inches (165.1 cm) according to asparagus, that gives us a measurement of .625 inches/pixel (1.5875 cm/pixel).
Side note, I really want some Twizlers right now.
So instead of having pixels as at a 1:1 ratio, we have something a little more lenient, but things are looking a little... grim. We’ll have to convert each individual amount, so we have (704 * .625) * (496 * .625) + ((136 * 64) * .625^2) for 124,395.31 inches/sq, 863.86 ft/sq., 80.25 m/sq. But still, we haven’t even begun to calculate the actual volume of our farmhouse yet, so these numbers are going to explode.
I’m beginning to think Robin is Hestia. Yoba is not the only deity in this town.
Alright, calculating the rest of the floor spaces is a little boring so let’s speedrun this.
Wall height for the farmhouse is 140 pixels, so (140 * .625) * 124,395.31 inches/sq / 12^3 = 6,298.95 ft^3 (178.36 m^3) for the farmhouse, and 25,800.51 ft^3 (730.58 m^3) using my method.
Just... let’s move on.
Second iteration has me doing a fair bit more work.
Wall height is 135 pixels, and rightmost—wait, the walls are shorter? Weird. Anyway, the rightmost room has dimensions of 486 for width by 375 for depth (and the same cubby dimensions), giving us cuboid dimensions of 24,603,750 pixels^3, which converts to 14,238.28 ft^3 (403.18 m^3), and 3,476.14 ft^3 (82.83 m^3) using asparagus' method
Middle corridor has a dimensional width of 42 pixels by 87 depth, giving us a total of 285.47 ft^3 (8.08 m^3), and 69.69 ft^3 (1.97 m^3) using asparagus' method.
Leftmost room (the kitchen) has a width of 870 and depth of 375, with a doorway of 136x64. That gives us a cuboid area of 314,019.38 ft^3 (29,173.11 m^3), and 6,388.74 ft^3 (180.91 m^3) using asparagus' method.
That gives us a grand total for a tier two home of...
... 328,543.13 ft^3 (29,584.37 m^3) using my method and
... 9,934.58 ft^3 (281.31 m^3) using asparagus' method.
So Robin added at a minimum 3,635.63 cubic feet to your house in three days by herself. Even if you extend the days and months to roughly align with our own calendar, that would be a mere nine days. How much powdered starfruit did she snort in order to do that by herself? I 100% believe Emily is the town’s dealer. I didn’t even calculate the length of the farmhouse loft. It’s doable, and even though you can’t enter it in the game, a bigger farmhouse means a bigger loft judging by the look of it.
Anyway, I’m not going to calculate the loft area right now. I’m not going to calculate the other tiers of your farmhouse either, even though that was my intent when I started this analysis. The math is easy enough, but it gets boring to type, and no doubt to read. Plus, I’m a little stunned by Robin's carpentry acumen. C’mon Robin, stop upgrading my house. Exercise with the girls, dance with your husband, smoke some weed, I dunno, RELAX.
But in a strange way, it makes a weird sort of sense. Pretty much no one plays the game with auto-run turned off, but do so for a moment. See how fast you move. That is your normal pace, and auto-run is you, an Olympian god, sprinting around town every second of every day, helping the shit out of everyone whether they want it or not, snorting the same starfruit mixture you got from Robin to keep going, who may have gotten it from Linus (my money is still on Emily). We’ve become so accustomed to seeing the run animation as our default I almost didn’t realize it doesn’t translate to modern life. The boards in your house, I almost took those as your normal 2x4 planks of wood (which actually measure 1.5x3.5, the world lies to me). They are not. They are almost the width of your entire body, and your walking pace (sorry I can’t get an exact pixel measurement) covers roughly one and a half boards, a similar length to a normal human gait. The art style fooled even me until now, but your house is massive.
Let’s just answer our other two questions. What is the exchange rate? Calculating the exchange rate of a fictional world is always tricky as they have different concepts of rarities, but I’ll give it the ol’ college try. Once again, I can’t do anything with magic. Let’s first list some things of note:
Now you may be tempted to say we can’t translate iridium and gold’s prices to real world market values, and normally you may be right, but there are some extenuating circumstances in the game: the town is right next to two very large mines. It is even a plot point once you clear the glittering boulder that the water carries ore from deep inside the mountain. Yes, gold and iridium are valuable, but your location to ore veins is important; gold and iridium may be uncommon resources but you have access to very specific places where they are more common, otherwise known as the scarcity heuristic). This also explains two facts about iridium: discounting magic, iridium is quite rare in the game, just like real life. Secondly, Clint’s prices make a lot more sense not only because it’s endgame material, but because iridium is super dense and has a very high melting point, thus making it a very difficult material to work with.
But by far the biggest challenge of this question is figuring out whether or not items you produce factor in the cost of your labor or not. For instance, lace is made of simple materials that even in the days of Victorian England, it was easy to get. However because lace was so time consuming to make, it could command absurd prices. Thus, one of the first things we need to discover is whether or not the game takes into account cost of labor or not.
So I am going to take you all back to school and talk about someone who’s old and dead: Adam Smith. It was he who talked about the cost of labor in his book The Wealth of Nations, and because of that, I bring up this particular line:
“...From century to century, corn is a better measure than silver, because, from century to century, equal quantities of corn will command the same quantity of labour more nearly than equal quantities of silver.
Why did I mention corn above? This is why. Prices may vary, but agriculture has been around for thousands of years and the cost of a farmer’s labor equals about the same.
According to Dylan Baumann, Stardew Valley corn plants have a profit value of 535 gold per plant. Our corn plant profits are about as high as they can get without adding something new into the mix, and we don’t want that yet.
Let’s set some ground rules:
If you plant the entire farm with corn and stop harvesting on Fall day 28 when the growing season ends, that lets you harvest a total of 11 ears of corn per plant. Multiply that by 3,350, we get a total of 36,850 ears of corn for your entire farm. Corn is measured in bushels, and a bushel of corn can be anywhere between 40 and 60 ears of corn, but we’ll say you really pack it in for 60, meaning your growing season for corn produces 36,850 / 60 corn for a total of 614.17 bushels per year.
The USDA has a 2001 labor value of corn at US$2.92 per acre (and that matches the Iowa labor statistic), and using 156 bushels per acre, that brings our labor cost per bushel at... US$00.02. That’s a real pittance. Considering bushels of corn retailed around $2.11 per bushel in 2001, that is an incredible markup of 184.85 times.
We’re almost done with the dreaded math, I swear.
Corn retails at 100g apiece in Stardew Valley(You get 50 gold from Pierre, so he has a 100% markup), meaning the labor cost should be around 184.85 times less that amount, meaning it takes about 0.54 gold to make one ear of corn.
Your average US farmers salary $55,000 and $100,000, and we’ll take the middle of $77,500 for our measurements. Dividing the farmer’s salary by the total ears of corn our farmer grows in Stardew Valley, we get a labor cost per ear of corn in US dollars of $2.10 per ear of corn. Now we multiply this by our markup ratio to get the IRL retail cost of corn in Stardew, getting US$237.08! Damn that better be some good eating! We divide that number by the Stardew Valley retail cost of corn, netting us a real world conversion of gold of, drumroll please, $2.37 US dollars per gold in 2001.
Now just for funzies, let us calculate the actual salary of your famer in Stardew Valley. Multiplying your 36,850 ears of corn by 50 gold (your selling price of gold, not the retail price of 100g), that nets you 1,842,500 gold per growing season. Multiply that by the dollagold conversion we just calculated and your real life gross income comes out to be US$436,672,500.
Give me all of the golden clocks, wizard.
Three questions down, one more to go. Currency conversion was rather tricky because it involved quite a lot of math, but this last question, what is the cost of Robin’s labor, that requires the most assumptions. There’s an easy answer and a hard answer.
Robin’s upgrades, except for the last, require you the farmer to give her resources in addition to gold. The simple answer is you are providing materials in order to keep the raw gold cost down. This means that the first house upgrade, 10,000 gold, is strictly her labor cost as the 450 wood is all the raw materials she needs to build. 3 days * 3 months (to adjust Stardew month lengths to our month lengths) comes out to Robin working an IRL equivalent to 9 days. Taking 10,000 gold / 9 days equals a cost of 1,111.111 gold per day, and considering Robin has snorted enough powdered starfruit to have 20 hour work days, that comes out to 55.56 gold per hour.
Just to be sure, let’s see if the math holds up for the last upgrade. That one requires a cost of 100,000 gold and comes preequipped with 33 casks. You do not provide the resources for the casks, meaning that comes included with the cost. Casks cannot be sold, but the materials required to make them are 20 wood and 1 hardwood, which Robin will provide for the same 100% markup (meaning 4 gold and 30 gold respectively). 4 gold * 30 gold * 33 casks comes out to 3,960 gold. Using the same calculations for the first house iteration, we get (100,000 gold - 3,960) / (3 days * 3 months) / 20 hours for a total of 533.56 gold per hour.
Not even close to our first estimate. We could just average them together for (533.56 + 55.56) / 2 = 294.56 gold, and that would be the easy answer. It would be nice to settle for the easy answer.
Let’s find the hard answer. We are going to calculate labor cost per square footage, and luckily most of the work has been done over the course of several google spreadsheets. To find the cost of materials and money per upgrade volume we get the formula (Upgrade volume - Base Volume) / 10,000 gold. This gives us a grand total of cubic material built per gold of...
...2,573.26 in^3/gold, 30.27 ft^3/gold, 2.89 m^3/gold using my method and
...628.24 in^3/gold, 0.36 ft^3/gold, 0.01 m^3/gold using asparagus’ method.
Let’s see if the math holds up for the basement upgrade and dammit I just realized I got to do more pixel measurements now. Hold on, be back in an hour.
Alright, I’m back. We don’t need to do any subtraction for the previous volume of the house considering the cellar is its own little area, but we still need to subtract the value of the materials used for the casks. The cellar comes out to a grand total of cubic materials built per gold of...
...386.91 in^3/gold, 0.22 ft^3/gold, 0.01 m^3/gold using my method and
...94.46 in^3/gold, 0.05 ft^3/gold, 0.0015 m^3/gold using asparagus’ method.
Huge discrepancy.
Before I get into my reasoning why, let us outline what we know first.
I come to one conclusion: Robin is a god that has settled down in the world of Stardew Valley.
Here me out. I have three pieces of evidence.
The first is when Robin is hired to take on a house upgrade job no one helps her, not even her husband Demetrius. Your house is right next to hers, so you’re not paying for travel. As we have shown by our calculations above and in the gDoc spreadsheet, that is a massive amount of work. It’s simply not possible for a human to accomplish such a monumental task. Robin claims she built her own home herself with this line from the game...
“Have I told you that I built our house from the ground up? It's definitely been the highlight of my career so far.”
...so we know her carpentry acumen is impressive enough for the job, but she has severely understated her skill. Homeadvisor pegs a house costing anywhere between US$150,000 to US$500,000 (US$102,005.53 to $340,018.44, adjusted for 2001 inflation), but even adjusted for inflation, Robin absolutely underbids the current housing market. Those inflation adjusted values, when converted to gold, come out to a range of 43,040.31g-143,467.70g. Granted, these prices are for a complete house, not adding onto a current house, but even if we half the value you are getting one hell of a discount.
The second piece is Robin’s language. The sheer passion for her work speaks wonders..
“Wood is a wonderful substance... it's versatile, cheap, strong, and each piece has its own unique character!”
...but perhaps she is just passionate about what she does. Many people are, but knowing what we do about how dirt cheap and blindingly fast she works let’s go into more detail about some things, specifically three lines. The first...
“Our little plan worked out well, don't you think? Pam and Penny seem really happy.”
...is said after Pam’s house undergoes an upgrade. “Our” plan? Sure, you are the one that buys the upgrade and Robin has to build it, but I can’t help but feel there is a double meaning behind this language. It is done out of the kindness of Robin’s heart and the materials have to come from somewhere, so she can’t do it for free, but it wasn’t about the money, as we have stated previously. It was about Penny.
Pam is a somewhat contentious person because of slobbish and slovenly nature. She is immediately and irrationally angered when Penny tries to pick the place up. She drinks heavily...
“\sigh*... My mother definitely has a problem with going to the saloon too much. But it's best not to dwell on bad things, right?”*
...doesn’t seem to understand not paying her tab has some consequences, and doesn’t realize what her habits have done to her daughter’s psyche.
Then you, the player come along. Pam is okay with the simple things in life, but you help Penny with her worries and insecurities, and then with you and Robin together, you give Penny everything she needs to help her shed those worries. She has a house that doesn have problems with rain, two friends who look out for her, her mom has a job, and most importantly she has peace of mind and in a world fraught with problems, that is truly priceless.
Then there is this line...
“Hey! I heard some weird noises last night, and woke up this morning to find the quarry bridge completely repaired! It's a miracle of woodworking!”
...and it occurs once you offer items to the community center junimos to get the quarry bridge repaired.
It is also a bald-faced lie.
The junimos are good, don’t get me wrong, but we’ve seen what Robin can do with our own two eyes. She is absolutely incredible at her job, and while I may give it to her she has no idea what junimos are or what they are capable of, we have proof that the act of restoring the bridge in one night is not out of the realm of possibility for her. A miracle, yes, but I’m certain she can beat the junimos’ time.
Lastly, there is one quote from her that is just... it opens up some very interesting questions. When she says...
“My parents were bewildered when I told them I wanted to be a carpenter. They were pretty old-fashioned.”
...how old are her parents when they consider carpentry too new-fashioned for them? Carpentry is one of the world’s oldest professions. If they were old-fashioned, why were they bewildered?
This line is just so fascinating to me. Robin is incredibly skilled, but I cannot rationalize carpentry being too newfangled for parents to wrap their head around. Who were they? Where are they from? I know your secrets, Robin, I know your parents are gods, too.
The third and final piece is the contrasting pieces of the world at large. Just like ours, it’s a little depressing. Joja Corp runs dozens of what even Cyberpunk would consider a dataslave farm. The world is flooded with consumerism run amok, Orwellian surveillance, and rampant urbanization. The Ferngill Republic is in the middle of a war with the Gotoro Empire and Kent still suffers PTSD from being in a prisoner of war camp.
Stardew Valley isn’t just a town to retire in, it is a place of respite and healing. There are three confirmed magic users deeply tied to the town’s mystical roots. The bears speak and encourage you to manage the world around you. You are rewarded for restoring balance to the valley by being able to recycle things you don’t need. Your main resource in the game, gold, also doesn’t matter that much; if it ever slips into the negative, nothing bad ever happens. You must just work to raise it back up. There is no lose condition in the game.
In many respects it is similar to the Gaiaism philosophy that all living beings are connected, each relying and depending on each other in order to maintain a peaceful coexistence. You help Shane with his nihilism and depression, Sebastian with his ability to express and accept affection, Sam with his dreams, Kent with his problems, Leah with her ambitions, Haley with her generosity and narcissism, or even simple goals like Penny’s idea of a quiet domestic life.
Whether it is the addicted, lost, or scorned, everyone is welcome and everyone can have a home in Stardew Valley. No one embodies this more than Robin who just wants a simple life. Whether it is her own house or her own boat during the Dance of the Moonlight Jellies, Robin builds it herself. The feel of wood grain, the smell of lacquer, the stickiness of stain, the thrum of the saw, and the bite of the axe. Robin doesn’t charge you nearly enough for your house upgrades because it is not about the money. Woodworking is what she loves and she lives in a place where barterism, kindness, family, and friendship substitute so many of life's modern problems and inconveniences.
Friendship increases in the game aren’t just a measurement of achievements, a means of getting more recipes, or more candles lit on a grave. You are making friends and getting to know these people for who they are and everyone’s life is bettered because of it. The amount of love I’ve seen for Linus is just staggering. Shane, in all of his melancholy and despite him not being a suitor in the original version of the game, is loved by so many. I know some despise Haley, but I love that I was able to show her what kindness can do for people.
You are in a gentle and loving place, and you are loved.
What a better place for a god to reside? A quiet town filled with peace and love, seeped in nature and the old magics of yore. A loving mate, a family to raise. Land to share with those that forage from its bounty. It’s all she needs.
Robin’s role in all of this? She desires neither worship nor admiration. She is just a friend. A god, certainly, but a friend first and foremost who is just settling down in a quiet town looking for a little peace.

https://preview.redd.it/vxedrolha3w51.png?width=507&format=png&auto=webp&s=d109cc65b008db74dc4ef74d20083c6eeb2cfc60
Image by MagicallyClueless
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Dirty Pig left to wander the streets

Honestly, this was truly an accidental development that looks like karma. When I was in my 20s, I had two roommates who were “just no” people. Will make this post about the last one of them. I was recently single and had a very nice place. Lesson 1: not everyone needs to know your living conditions. Lesson 2: do not tolerate what you wouldn’t inflict unto others.
We (me and my family) had known this elderly woman my entire life. I called Auntie. She has a problematic daughter (in her 40’s back then). The mother simply enabled her and people shunned them because they caused a “taker dynamic” (moochers). The mother mooched on behalf of her daughter. Auntie knew I had a great place to live. Called me and caught me by surprise. Guilt tripped me about having a good place and not inviting her daughter in who was (casually) between apartments (evicted) and looking for a place. Honestly, this caught me off guard and before I could have a reaction, she was already calling her daughter to “confirm” my approval. Big Mistake!!!
My family became really angry and criticized me for not putting my foot down. Anyway, the daughter (“Mary”) moved in and everything went smooth for days. She had an extremely high paying job. That woman was qualified, had 40+ employees under her supervision and had served for 20 plus years in her industry. But all her stories were really negative. Coworkers were evil. Landlord hated women. Friends were false. Cousins were jealous of her success. Mmmm..okay. I was recently single and coping had been challenging. She promised to pay for her own expenses plus rent. As anticipated, she never honored our deal. Not paying her partial rent was the least of multiple acts of dishonesty and breach of trust on her part.
Suddenly, my fridge was empty. Dishes towered in the sink. Her dingy towel stank up her bedroom because she slept on top of it (wet) on her bed for days. I had to follow my nose to find what the hell was that smell (towel was wet and twisted inside her comforter). This habit caused a perfectly new mattress to get stained with mold. I had to close her door to avoid the stench from her room. I addressed the situation many times, but she became hostile. She claimed her night shift made her so tired she just crashed her bed and passed out. Things escalated. I’m a non-smoker but tolerant. I would come home to a dining table with dirty dishes and multiple half-empty food cans with cigar butts floating inside. She tossed her panties behind the toilet and would not pick them up. She had all kinds of trash under her bed.
I began to notice some “stuff”. All of her belongings always stayed in her car trunk. She would load and unload them almost every day. She was no criminal and she wasn’t on the run. What I presume is that she was so used to getting kicked out that she was on “fleeing mode” 24/7. Of course, sooner than later, I became the bad guy. I got up one Saturday morning to do some house cleaning. I (half out of disgust and half because I was doing laundry) tossed her extremely filthy white fabric flip flops in the washer. She went ballistic and used foul language because I should not be touching her stuff.
That woman had a huge gambling habit (this explains most of her actions). She would play scratch, lotto, dice, blackjack. One day her wallet fell open and all these “good luck” charms came out. She never treated herself to a nice dinner. She always had coffee and a sandwich, unless someone else paid for her food. She was moody and anxious when she couldn’t gamble.
Mary also hoped all the gas stations in search of “lucky winner” games, spent time at the slot machine at a nearby bar, and got an expensive traffic ticket for invading a private parking space (near a casino). All her anticipation turned to bitterness and aggressive demeanor when she lost her money (often!). She would curse at people and wish horrible things upon them (especially if the newspaper reported a big lotto winner).
When I learned that an ex had kicked her out for snooping in his checkbook, I became paranoid and hid all my valuables. A family member advised me to never unpack a new coffee maker I'd bought because she loved coffee and that would be just another reason to hang around. It was true. One time, she asked if I had a coffee maker and I said no. She asked me to “get one”. I said no, I’m not into coffee. She called me a tightwad and a c---.
I’m an animal lover and used to take my pet with me whenever I stayed elsewhere for the night. It was quite rare for me not to take my beloved 4 legged princess. This situation had so many red flags I was uncomfortable leaving an animal under her care. I put my pet in my purse (I’m not being specific to maintain some privacy, 99% of the population hates her and someone may catch on this story, lol.) and left town. I used to go visit family out of town and stay over the weekend.
I was hours away when my phone rang at 2 am. She was yelling, cursing, demanding that I solve “the situation”. I asked her very firmly to calm down because I could not discern anything due to her screaming. She told me she had “come home” and that her key broke inside the lock. I asked her if she could just “pinch it” and turn it with her fingers but the key was completely torn and there was no way to grab it. Sweet. I looked at my beloved furry baby, all safe and happy. I had nothing to be concerned about. She kept screaming some more. She demanded that I “drive my ass back and help her”. There was nothing I could possibly do at 2 am. What was I supposed to do? Sit with her in the hallway? She demanded to know when I’d be back, but I told her I intended to spend the whole weekend with family. That was it. She hung up on me. I never showed up until 4 days later to make sure she was gone. The first thing I did was toss her mattress. There was so much food residue between her bedframe and the fitted sheet it was nauseating. There were some sticky coffee cups on the floor, dirty sanitary pads, and a notebook with lots of gambling gimmicks. I put everything in the garbage and spent a whole day cleaning up my house. She had left very few things behind. I eventually “announced” that my landlord would not renew my contract and she replied “wow, I was so well set at that place” (I sh!it you not).

She spent that night driving around. Her mother told me in an accusatory voice that she had no money for a hotel and had slept in her car for a week because her friends let her take showers but staying over was out of the question. I calmly told her that she could just stay with her and save money. This wasn’t happening. I later learned that she had “borrowed” money from some neighbors some years behind and avoided our old neighborhood because she never paid them back. Her occasional visits with her mother were very secretive. She would have someone drop her and would not even show up at the balcony. She had also lost her home because she spent all her salary at the casino many years ago. She bailed rent and snuck out on her landlords. She tried to stiff a cousin with “10,000 dollars from his Visa card and I’ll pay you back”. He said no and she became his enemy. I have never seen her again but did hear some stories about her for about 10 + years. Pretty much all the same. My family and I severed ties with Auntie almost 20 years ago because she became extremely resentful and blamed us for her daughter's troubles from then on.
submitted by forestcabin123k to accidentalrevenge [link] [comments]

Moving to the area in about a year or so...

Looking for insight from some Vegas locals. I'll preface the question by giving as much data as seems salient.
1) No, I'm not moving there for at least 12 months. No worries about my bringing COVID from Florida. Also, I'm used to insanely hot summers, so the heat from June-Sept is no deterrent at all.
2) It will be just myself and the Mrs. - both in our late 40s. No kids, so schools are irrelevant.
3) We will both be working remotely, so home to work commute is a non-factor.
4) I make a comfortable low 6 figure salary, so while I am certainly not wealthy, I can afford something in a neighborhood that isn't downtrodden.
5) We're looking for a single-family home or condo/townhouse in a decent area, 2 or 3 bedrooms. We don't need a ton of space, so we're looking in the 1,000-2,000 sq ft range. I won't spend in excess of $300K, and would prefer more like $250K-$275K so I can pay it off faster and retire.
6) We are decidedly NOT elitists and don't give a tin s#$% about being able to "say we live in Summerlin" (for example.) I'm not the type to pay for name recognition or whatever "status" comes with living in a certain area. I'm far more comfortable hanging out at a sports bar and knocking back $3 Bud bottles than sitting in some hip nightclub, drinking a $1,000 bottle of Grey Goose. I find the latter both wasteful and nauseating.
7) We both like to gamble from time to time, but we're very much the low-stakes type. In other words, I'm not going to be hanging out on the Strip. Give me a $5 blackjack table with a 3-2 payout and a steady stream of beers/well drinks and I'm a happy guy. You are NEVER going to find me at the Wynn playing $20 a hand and getting 6-5. A few locals casinos in the area would be a huge plus.
8) We do like to eat out from time to time - a good steakhouse, some sushi, seafood, Italian, etc. We also get take out pretty frequently. Some options of that ilk nearby would be another huge plus.
9) Pursuant to #7 and #8, we'd prefer not to be in the middle of nowhere to the point that we'd have to drive 20 minutes to get to a good casino or restaurant. I'd like to have a wealth of options close by if at all possible.
10) We're not super active, but do enjoy a nice walk or bike ride now and again, so some parks/trails nearby would be nice. We like to camp/hike occasionally and aren't boat people, so it seems proximity to Red Rock Canyon rather than Lake Mead would be a plus, but certainly not a deal-breaker either way.
Now, I'm aware that threads like this pop up all the GD time. I've read 90% of them, so there's no need to go through the regular motions. I've already gathered - or at least, I've read - some facts about each area. Summerlin, I understand, is very nice and self contained. My only concerns about it are fees out the wazoo, annoying HOAs, and snooty people. Maybe this only applies to certain subsections. This is the kind of info I'm fishing for. Centennial sounds really nice, but kind of far away from most of the action (see #9.) Henderson seems like it might be a good choice, but there seem to be a lot of areas to look into - I still am a little unclear on the differences between Green Valley Ranch and Green Valley South, is Seven Hills part of Anthem, or is the latter its own entity, etc. I believe I've seen enough to rule out the northern and eastern portions of the Metro area. Southwest/Southern Highlands, I haven't read as much about.
I plan to fly out late this year (hopefully after this mess has died down) and check some of these areas out in person to try to get a feel for them, but I'm not sure how much you can gather in a day. I'll find out, I guess. What I'm really asking here is - can anyone tell me what areas it may sound like I'm describing with the facts above? Are there any particular neighborhoods (like Peccole Ranch or Silverado Ranch for example, rather than just "Summerlin" or "Henderson") that I should check out? Thanks so much in advance for your advice/insight.
submitted by Evilgrin72 to vegaslocals [link] [comments]

Rush Street Interactive Announces Preliminary Third Quarter 2020 Revenue and releases updated Investor Presentation - DMYT DMYT.WS

On Track to Complete Business Combination With dMY Technology (NYSE: dMYT) During the Fourth Quarter of 2020
"CHICAGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Rush Street Interactive, LP (“RSI” or the “Company”), one of the fastest-growing online casino and sports betting gaming companies in the United States, today announced preliminary financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2020. The preliminary results are subject to completion of the Company’s quarterly financial reporting process and the preparation of the unaudited financial statements for the quarter.
RSI currently expects revenue for the third quarter to be in the range of $75 million to $77 million on a GAAP basis. Additionally, RSI expects advertising and promotion costs for the three months ended September 30, 2020 to be less than $20.0 million on a GAAP basis. Advertising and promotion costs consist primarily of marketing the product via different channels, promotional activities, and the related costs incurred to acquire new customers that include salaries and benefits for dedicated personnel and are expensed as incurred."
Press Release:
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201015005534/en/Rush-Street-Interactive-Announces-Preliminary-Third-Quarter-2020-Revenue
October 2020 Investor Presentation:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1793659/000119312520269734/d140415dex992.htm
8-K:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1793659/000119312520269734/d140415d8k.htm
submitted by SPAC_Time to Spacstocks [link] [comments]

UK side hustle live poker performance - year 1 results and thoughts

UK side hustle live poker performance - year 1 results and thoughts
This is about 9 months out of date but I wrote this to help consider my results and then couldn't decide where to post it. Having recently got myself a Reddit account, this seems the place.
----
A little history:
When I was 20 I considered dropping out of Uni and becoming a poker player. I had earned £18K profit across the previous year, and that is a lot of money for a student! Especially in the UK, where because poker is classed as a game of luck there is no tax on the winnings of gambling, it felt more like £25K. A significant “salary” for any 20 year old.
Then I started looking at the data behind that and realised that I was averaging almost 70 hours a week grinding 6 tables simultaneously at small stakes to make that profit. In fact my income per hour was just £5.37. Not awful, but hardly worth dropping out of Uni. Suddenly that profit didn’t feel so great anymore.
I tried moving up in stakes, from $20 buy-in’s to $50 buy-in’s, but in a month I lost £3K. The next level contained professionals, and the UK Government can pretend all it wants, but when you’re playing many thousands of hands, skill starts to overcome the short term coin-flips and variances. It was brutal. It was humbling. I wasn’t good enough, simply put, to do it full time and make decent money… so I decided to focus on graduating.
When I was 30 I decided I would try a bit more seriously again, but in casinos. I’d played in casinos sporadically over those 10 years (actually ended up in one with the woman who is now my wife, after I “accidently” missed my last train home when I saw her in a London pub), and although I felt I was a profitable and solid player, you need to be mindful not to kid yourself. So I approached things systematically, recording data for 12 months to see what stood out and lessons I could learn.

The results are in!
· I am indeed profitable. The data told me I had made a total of £8,279 in profit.
· I am fairly consistent, achieving a winning session 53 times from 77 visits, or 69%.
· I played 337.75 hours, meaning an hourly profit of £24.51, or annualised a take-home salary of £48K after tax, which is £68K before.
· I earned on average 14 “big blinds” an hour, a key metric for cash game players. At small stakes, anything over 5 is respectable, over 10 is great. I’ve heard it said 80% of small stake players are loss making, which seems a bit high to me, but I can easily imagine 60% are.
Better still, my graph has very few swings. Interestingly though, I only had 2 amazing nights where I won >£1500, which probably means I played slightly too safe. I confess I did seek to minimise variance where possible, feeling that I was better than 80% of the players I was against, so I didn’t need to take 50-55% marginally favourable coinflips.

Now because my sessions were of different lengths, it’s not immediately obvious if a £100 profit is good or bad. I mean if I’ve played 4 hours, it’s average, 2 hours, it’s fantastic, and 8 hours, pretty meh.
So I took another look and blended the sessions instead across number of hands played, producing the below graph, showing a level of consistency I am genuinely proud of. Roughly speaking, I make £1 per hand played.


OK Great, but what did I learn from this? Data is lovely and all (as is £8K!), but really you want insight from that data you can action to improve performance.

Wait, I did better at larger stakes?
Well firstly, there are a few things I found counter intuitive. Take the below, which shows the stakes I played at. In theory, you earn less the higher your stakes go as competition increases, but I didn’t see that at all.


Playing at stakes 50% higher (£3 an “orbit” versus £2 an orbit – more significant than it might sound), my hourly was a whopping 600% higher. Put another way, I played just over twice as much £1/£2 as I did £1/£1, but made 13x as much profit! Surprising indeed, and massively unexpected.
I am planning on playing some £1/£3 and £2/£5 once I grow my bankroll this year, it’ll be interesting to see if this trend continues, or if there’s something else going on not immediately obvious to me.

Day of the week – weekends are worse?!
Another unexpected development was found when looking at the days I was playing. I had expected that I’d be much better on Friday and Saturday when more amateurs would play and I’d be able to target them, but I found the opposite. Friday’s I made £2.47 an hour, Saturday’s £12.52, both way off my average, and across quite large sample sizes too (>55% of sessions between them).
Meanwhile Sunday, Tuesday and Wednesday all had ~10%+ of sessions, but saw hourly profit doubling my averages. My best hourly is Sunday, although I have never lost money on a Wednesday, so a close call as to which is my best.

https://preview.redd.it/v10rt8fkgod51.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=8f3b3c4e57acd27dd00a70c1bc6fe05276270c38
After reflecting on these trends I started to realise something. Poker is essentially a game of knowledge and imperfect information. A key part of that is “position” (where you sit in each hand), where being later to act means you have access to more information, and “ranges” (what hands your opponents are likely to have), where depending on the position somebody plays a hand in and how they play it, you can start putting them on a range of cards. Nobody sane would bet with 7 players to act behind them with 2 7 off-suit, literally the worse starting hand, for example.
More experienced players play more predictably, and I was much better at sparring with them because I have a good grasp of the fundamentals. I think my fairly conservative playing style is also more suited to regular players, as I tend to take fewer risks and so don’t punish mistakes as harshly.
Finally, my risk adverse approach also fooled regular players into thinking I had weaker hands than I did, so I was able to mess with their attempts to put me on a range. Likewise I tended to just call, and rarely raise, any hand I wanted to play pre-flop, so I could disguise my hand and out-play after the flop. Again this isn’t traditional at all, but many of my bigger pots came about this way.

Central casinos have easier competition


Less surprising was my split in where I made the most money. Tellingly, Empire and Hippodrome are based in central London and are tourist destinations. I find the competitors objectively worse than I am, as a whole. The Vic and Aspers are less central, with the consensus being that Aspers was the toughest £1/£2 in London, consisting almost entirely of regulars and semi-pro’s. I mean, who wants to go to East London as a tourist? There’s way more glitz and glamour in Leicester Square and so much more appealing. The Vic is West London so less extreme, but a similar situation, it’s pretty out the way compared to central two.

Length of session
Lastly, something that was unknown to me was that I would see such an obvious split in hourly profit based on the amount of hours I was playing in that session:

https://preview.redd.it/m9cs1n0xgod51.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=e23b60a18ef1f3cb6f77b32c92e12626f8450f3e
Here, we see a jump in profit after 4 hours, and really between 4-8 hours is my sweet spot, running at 50% more than my average. I think after I have played at the same table for 4+ hours, that I am observant enough to spot certain patterns. One of my favourite tricks is to identify regulars targeting tourists, and re raise them. You know their range will be wide to target the less good player, so you take advantage of them trying to take advantage. This is especially good if you have a good position (so act after them), so that if they do call you can play the hand with more information.
The drop-off at the end likely indicates that after 8 hours I start making bad decisions. Reviewing this, not only am I probably a bit tired, but I think those sessions I am on “winners tilt”, and I must be winning or else I wouldn’t be there after 8 hours. But when you’re up and doing well, you tend to play hands you shouldn’t and make bad decisions that cost you, it can feel like there’s less cost in getting it wrong because you’re still in profit, even though it can cost more in terms of £s. Once I became aware of this in myself, I started seeing it in others. There’s a regular at the Hippodrome who is a dangerous and good player, but becomes reckless and likes a gamble when they are up. If he has lots of chips, I always try and sit at his table, and look to get it in when I am a 60-80% favourite, and hope my luck holds.

What’s next?
I’ve taken 2 months away from the casino’s to make sure I don’t have a problem and focus on a work project, and I’m looking forward to starting this year on the 29th November. I suppose starting on a Friday isn’t ideal, but it aligns nicely with my wife’s office Xmas party, so oh well! That said, I will make sure I play the £1/£2 at the Hippodrome for 4-8 hours. As it will be a Friday I’ll look to punish mistakes more aggressively and make fewer assumptions about the other players and their cards if they seem less experienced.
Let’s see if I can take the lessons learned across this year, and drive further improvements to make more money, improving on my operational performance, the real purpose of data in my opinion.
submitted by Hubbyhog to poker [link] [comments]

Wall Street Breakfast: The Week Ahead. I read this and thought it interesting. Enjoy from SeekingAlpha

Nike (NYSE:NKE) will headline a light roster of earnings reports in the week ahead, while Apple's (NASDAQ:AAPL) WWDC event sets the stage for the company's launch of the first 5G iPhones later this year. On the economic front, reports on existing home sales, jobless claims, consumer spending and a Q1 GDP revision will be the headliners. Fed heads are out in force next week, with virtual speeches on the docket for Raphael Bostic, James Bullard and Charles Evans. In a sign of normalcy, Ford (NYSE:F) and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (NYSE:FCAU) are expected to return to pre-pandemic production levels at U.S. plants, while results of Fed stress tests on major banks will be announced on June 25.
Earnings spotlight: IHS Market (NYSE:INFO) on June 23; BlackBerry (NYSE:BB), KB Home (NYSE:KBH) and National Beverage (NASDAQ:FIZZ) on June 24; Nike (NKE), Darden Restaurants (NYSE:DRI), Accenture (NYSE:ACN) and Rite Aid (NYSE:RAD) on June 25.
IPO watch: U.S. grocery store operator Albertsons (ACI) is expected to price its IPO next week and begin to trade. The company could have a valuation of over $10B if the IPO prices at the midpoint of the expected range of $18 to $20 range. Albertsons, which is looking to raise as much as $2B, is one of the grocery chains seeing a sales boom in business during the coronavirus pandemic. Stakeholders Kimco Realty (NYSE:KIM) and Cerberus Capital are both selling off shares in the offering. No other IPOs are due to price during the week.
M&A tidbits: The walk date for the Caesars Entertainment (NASDAQ:CZR)-Eldorado Resorts (NASDAQ:ERI) merger arrives on June 24, although no surprises are anticipated. Shareholders vote on the Provident Financial (NYSE:PFS)-SB One Bancorp (NASDAQ:SBBX) deal on June 25. On the same date, Delphi Technologies (NYSE:DLPH) shareholders vote on the merger with BorgWarner (NYSE:BWA). It is almost a lock that there will be some more drama in the Taubman Centers (NYSE:TCO)-Simon Property (NYSE:SPG) duel.
Projected dividend changes (quarterly): Kroger (NYSE:KR) to $0.17 from $0.16, John Wiley (NYSE:JW.A) to $0.35 from $0.34, Saul Centers (NYSE:BFS) to $0.27 from $0.53.
Spotlight on Nike: Nike will post its FQ4 report with more uncertainty in the air than almost any time before due to the lack of formal guidance from the company. The two biggest pullouts from the report are likely to be the pace of recovery in China and the momentum of the e-commerce business. Nike is one of the companies seen by Wall Street as in a strong position on the other side of the pandemic. "We see Nike as favorably positioned for both secular fitness/casualization trends and industry structural changes that benefit those with strong direct engagement with consumers," notes bullish-leaning Wells Fargo ahead of the print. Stocks that quite often move right along with Nike on earnings day include Foot Locker (NYSE:FL), adidas (OTCQX:ADDYY), Under Armour (NYSE:UAA) and Dick's Sporting Goods (NYSE:DKS).
WWDC: Apple will hold its annual developers conference on June 22-26 in a virtual format this year. Apple is expected to announce its ARM-based Macs as the company advances its control of chips and architecture away from Intel (NASDAQ:INTC). Enhancements with iOS14, tvOS 14 and watchOS 7 are also anticipated, along with new products/R&D initiatives on the AR headset and wearables/AirPods front. Tim Cook will give the keynote presentation on June 22 at 10:00 Pacific time in what is likely to be his last presentation before the annual September iPhone reveal event.
Healthcare watch: Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE:BMY) has an investor series presentation next week covering its early pipeline/immuno-oncology on June 22 and hematology on June 25. PDUFA dates arrive for Karyopharm Therapeutics' (NASDAQ:KPTI) Xpovio on June 23, Zogenix's (NASDAQ:ZGNX) Fintepla on June 25 and Heron Therapeutics' (NASDAQ:HRTX) HTX-011 on June 26. The big event of the week in the sector is the American Association for Cancer Research (AACR) Virtual Annual Meeting II running from June 22-24. A large number of potentially market-moving posters and abstracts are due to be released, as well as special sessions on COVID-19 and cancer research. Some of the notable companies due to present include Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ:GILD), AstraZeneca (NYSE:AZN), Phio Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:PHIO), Exicure (NASDAQ:OTC:XCUR), Xencor (NASDAQ:XNCR), ESSA Pharma (NASDAQ:EPIX), ImmunoGen (NASDAQ:IMGN), Molecular Templates (NASDAQ:MTEM), Guardant Health (NASDAQ:GH), CRISPR Therapeutics (NASDAQ:CRSP), Jounce Therapeutics (NASDAQ:JNCE), GlycoMimetics (NASDAQ:GLYC), Seattle Genetics (NASDAQ:SGEN), Provectus Therapeutics (OTC:PVCT), ORIC Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:ORIC), Sanofi (NASDAQ:SNY), aTyr Pharma (NASDAQ:LIFE), TG Therapeutics (NASDAQ:TGTX) and Neoleukin Therapeutics (NASDAQ:NLTX).
Bank tests: The Federal Reserve will release results of the annual bank stress tests on June 25. Fed Vice Chair Randal Quarles noted that the test this year includes running banks up against three possible economic trajectories of varying severity to see how they perform due to the unprecedented uncertainty about the pandemic. The test will see how banks perform against a rapid V-shaped recovery, a slower U-shaped recovery and a rough W-shaped recovery. The test results could factor in to dividend decisions down the road for Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), Citigroup (NYSE:C), Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) and JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM), while Capital One (NYSE:COF) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) are seen being pushed under the scenarios. Traders are making plays based on the results, with a notable amount of bullish options bets being placed on Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC). Some other bank names to watch when the results roll out are PNC Financial (NYSE:PNC), Truist (NYSE:TFC), Regions Financial (NYSE:RF), Ally Financial (NYSE:ALLY), HSBC North America (NYSE:HSBC), UBS (NYSE:UBS), Credit Suisse (NYSE:CS), Barclays (NYSE:BCS), Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE:BK) and Huntington Bancshares (NASDAQ:HBAN).
Analyst meetings and business updates: Electronic Arts (NASDAQ:EA) will host a fireside chat for the investor community with members of its management team on June 22. The impact of some of the games introduced at EA Play Live 2020 will be discussed. Hewlett Packard Enterprises (NYSE:HPE) is launching the first-ever HPE Discover Virtual Experience on June 23 to showcase the company's pivot to an edge-to-cloud platform-as-a-service company. In the transportation sector, Kansas City Southern (NYSE:KSU) is participating in a Q&A webcast with Cowen on June 23. Also on June 23, Dell Technologies (NYSE:DELL) has an investor call with Morgan Stanley scheduled. Meanwhile, Sanofi is holding a virtual R&D day event on June 23. Bristol-Myers Squibb has an investor event covering immunology and cardiovascular on June 26.
Conferences rundown: The timing looks spot on for the Jefferies Virtual Consumer Conference on June 23-24 with the pandemic shifting shopping habits in the U.S. Companies due to present include Hasbro (NASDAQ:HAS), Planet Fitness (NYSE:PLNT), Nu Skin (NYSE:NUS), Freshpet (NYSE:FPT), Murphy USA (NYSE:MUSA), Sysco (NYSE:SYY), Hostess Brands (NASDAQ:TWNK), Shack Shack (NYSE:SHAK) and Jack in the Box (NASDAQ:JACK). In the healthcare sector, the BMO 2020 Prescriptions for Success Healthcare Conference features virtual presentations by Humana (NYSE:HUM), Halozyme (NASDAQ:HALO), Horizon Therapeutics (NASDAQ:HZNP), Apellis Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:APLS), Amgen (NASDAQ:AMGN) and Replimune (NASDAQ:REPL) on June 23. Other conferences of note include the SVB Leerink CybeRx Series CNS Forum, BMO Chemicals & Packaging Conference, Wells Fargo Bricks to Clicks Digital Conference, Goldman Sachs Leveraged Finance Conference and the Morgan Stanley Zero Trust Architectures Virtual Thematic Conference. On the smaller side of the conference schedule, the mining and metals sectors will be in focus, with John Tumazos Very Independent Research virtual meetings set for June 23-24 on Wheaton Precious Metals (NYSE:WPM), Western Copper and Gold (NYSEMKT:WRN), KORE Mining (OTCQB:KOREF), Amarillo Gold (OTCQB:AGCBF), Sierra Metals (NYSEMKT:SMTS), Foran Mining (OTC:FMCXF), Wolfden Resources (OTC:WLFFF), Trilogy Metals (NYSEMKT:TMQ) and Adventus Mining (OTCQX:ADVZF).
Ford F-150: Ford has a digital reveal event for the all-new F-150 set for June 25. The Ford team is expected to describe innovative features of the all-new F-150, including the new electrical architecture, a flat-lying passenger sleeper seat and over-the-air updates to key modules controlling vehicle performance and user experiences. The new truck is seen as a critical part of Ford's plan to slash $5B in warranty costs and push the automaker's vehicle connectivity platform. As a profit generator, the F-150 launch later this year will also help restore the company's balance sheet. The all-new Ford F-150 will be discussed by execs in detail during a June 26 conference call with Citi Research.
Deurbanization trade: Expect more talk from analysts next week about which sectors and stocks could benefit if the mega-trend of people and businesses moving out of downtowns of major cities becomes a reality. Jefferies got the ball rolling last week by singling out Home Depot (NYSE:HD), Lowe's (NYSE:LOW), Best Buy (NYSE:BBY), Floor & Decor (NYSE:FND), At Home (NYSE:HOME), Williams-Sonoma (NYSE:WSM) and Wayfair (NYSE:W) as retailers that could gain from an uptick in suburban living and more spending on houses than metropolitan apartments. One of the bigger pure plays is Tractor Supply (NASDAQ:TSCO), which has racked up a 64% gain over the last 90 days.
RVs: Keep an eye on the RV sector with May shipment numbers due out from the RV Industry Association. Demand is expected to be on the rebound after RV shipments fell 82% in April. Looking ahead, there is a difference in opinion on Wall Street on the outlook for Winnebago (NYSE:WGO), Thor Industries (NYSE:THO), Patrick Industries (NASDAQ:PATK), LCI Industries (NYSE:LCII) and Camping World Holdings (NYSE:CWH). Some firms like SunTrust Robinson Humphrey expect a RV boom as consumers gravitate toward safer vacations, while Bank of America has warned that the high rate of unemployment and salary cuts could keep discretionary spending in check.
Sports betting: Time is running out for the California Assembly to pass legislation on sports betting to move the issue to the November ballot. The bill has to pass through the legislature before June 25 to become an election issue. Why is it a big deal? California is forecast to have the potential for a +$30B sports betting market through sports books placed at tribal casinos, horse racing tracks and satellite wagering facilities. "California could easily become one of the most productive sports-betting markets in the world," observes gaming analyst Chris Grove. Tax revenue from sports betting would also help the Golden State with its budget issues amid the pandemic and economic downturn. Stocks of interest in relations to how sports betting in California plays out include DraftKings (NASDAQ:DKNG), William Hill (OTCPK:WIMHF), MGM Resorts (NYSE:MGM), Caesars Entertainment, Fanduel (DUEL), Red Rock Resorts (NASDAQ:RRR), Boyd Gaming (NYSE:BYD) and Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ:WYNN).
Casinos: The Nevada Gaming Commission is meeting on June 25 to likely approve amendments to state regulations that would streamline the process for moving to modern payment methods. The casino industry in general wants to quickly adopt cashless payment transactions on the casino floor due to the risk of handling cash during the coronavirus outbreak. The casino reset could have implications for Visa (NYSE:V), Mastercard (NYSE:MA) and American Express (NYSE:AXP), as well as financial apps from Apple (AAPL), Google (NASDAQ:GOOGL) (NASDAQ:GOOG) and PayPal (NASDAQ:PYPL). Casino operators like MGM Resorts, Wynn Resorts, Caesars Entertainment and Penn National Gaming (NASDAQ:PENN) would also welcome the change.
What's not playing: Warner Bros.'s (NYSE:T) feature animated film Scoob! will stream on HBO Max on June 26 after running in a premium video on-demand window. The children's picture was first scheduled for theaters on May 15 before opting for a 48-hour rental PVOD period price of U.S. $19.99. While Scoob! didn't make quite the splash that Trolls World Tour did in the spring when it nabbed $100M in digital sales over three weeks, it's another incremental step away from the traditional studio release format for major studios like Sony (NYSE:SNE), Universal Pictures (NASDAQ:CMCSA) and Disney (NYSE:DIS). As for theater chains, auditoriums are likely to operate at 25% to 50% capacity as AMC Entertainment (NYSE:AMC), Cinemark (NYSE:CNK), IMAX (NASDAQ:IMAC), Marcus Entertainment (NYSE:MCS) and Reading International (NASDAQ:RDI) open back up this summer.
Notable annual meetings: Companies with virtual annual meetings set next week include Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings (NASDAQ:OLLI) on June 22, Dave & Buster's Entertainment (NASDAQ:PLAY) on June 23, Keurig Dr Pepper (NYSE:KDP) on June 24, At Home Group and Tailored Brands (NYSE:TLRD) on June 25.
Barron's mentions: The publication digs out four industrial companies whose stocks are called compelling. Midsize manufacturers RBC Bearings (NASDAQ:ROLL) and Wabtec (NYSE:WAB) join large-caps Emerson Electric (NYSE:EMR) and Ametek (NYSE:AME) on the short list of economy recovery picks. Of the four, Wabtec trades with the lowest forward PE ratio at 14.2. Brunswick (NYSE:BC) is also singled out this week as an advantageous product-mix shift and rising boat demand are seen helping to drive shares higher. Most of Brunswick's profit is derived from the high-margin Mercury engine business. The rally in tech names hasn't encapsulated the entire sector. Attractive names still trading at less than 4X sales include Western Digital (NASDAQ:WDC), CACI International (NYSE:CACI), Leidos Holdings (NYSE:LDOS), Seagate Technology (NASDAQ:STX), Amdocs (NASDAQ:DOX), Ciena (NYSE:CIEN), Accenture, MKS Instruments (NASDAQ:MKSI), Intel and F5 Networks (NASDAQ:FFIV). The cover story this week hits on the rising inequality issue in the U.S., noting that it can be a breeding ground for all kinds of concerning things for the market like secular stagnation.
submitted by abiech to Winkerpack [link] [comments]

Moving to The Area! Need Help Finding A Town to Live In

Hi everybody! I am going to be moving to the Hartford area (or near it) very soon. I accepted a position at Mohegan Sun casino. My girlfriend currently lives in New Britain, and ideally I’d like to live in a distance somewhere between there, for an easy commute to see her and a easy commute to work. I’m just unsure of good towns or locations to be looking.
In terms of rent spending, I’ll be making about $40,500 annually, so my salary will fluctuate with OT opportunity. I have noticed that lots of apartments are in that $1,100/month range.
I’m also 28 y/o, enjoy going out from time to time, love fitness/working out, music, being outside, so hopefully that helps!!
Any help is appreciated!!
submitted by BoeheimBurnerAccount to Hartford [link] [comments]

Relapsed after 16 days

Hey guys, hoping you are all holding strong. Its so difficult fighting both gambling and the coronavirus at the same time. I turned 29 last Friday, and I had planned to go on a solo trip to the Maasai Mara or maybe Kilifi, both in Kenya to celebrate that weekend. Due to the coronavirus pandemic, I had to cancel this plan and opted to buy myself a nice sorround system for the same.
Anyway, back to my relapse. Almost three weeks ago I decided to quit for good. This is after tallying my total all time losses to around 2.45k USD for the last three years or so, considering that I earn 8.4k per annum, which is quite little comparing to some of y'all salaries. I need to change countries meeen.
So I go on this wonderful 2 week streak, no gambling, no nothing, on day 16 I decide to play just 10$ (well, I lied to myself that incase I lost the same, it would not be painful at all)....ended up loosing 40$. Next day, that gambling devil that always lies to you that you can get back your losses reared its ugly head. I played, lost 30$, but was able to win it all back, no profit. Next day, I yet again decide to play slots and got 20$ profit...same next day 20$...third day I think I made a profit of 40$...I was on fire...we all know where winning streaks usually end.....painful losses.
Come last Saturday, I decided to change online casinos and play with a local one which I had a 250$ jackpot from 0.2$ in November. Recent Casino reviews ranked this casino lowly...with one user complaining of system manipulation by the casino. I lost 30$ on Saturday....felt like hell...couldnt get over the loss.
On Sunday, I decide to play using my favourite Casino...was up by 17$ in a few minutes...instead of taking my gain and walking away with a 13$ loss for the weekend, I thought that it would be great making back my 30$....too bad,I lost 50$...making my weekend loss to be 80$. I tried getting back atleast 20$ today, but I lost a further 8$...
I know my figures could be chum change to some of you, but life is not that xpensive here. Groceries are as cheap as 3$ here, rent ranges between 75$ to 100$ monthly for a one bedroom appartment. I get my internet for 13$ a month, and my fare is about 30$ for the whole month to work and back.
I want to break this cycle. I get a loss, I quit, play again, win something small, then end loosing even more. I said once, my greatest weakness is that I have never learnt to let got of the 2450$ loss.....if only that could happen, I think Id quit forever.
submitted by bgiks to problemgambling [link] [comments]

Ideas para salvar la economía

Pillé este artículo de Bloomberg (ya sé, ya sé), que habla de algunas ideas para salvar la economía ante la pandemia. Dejo un link y copio el artículo por si no lo pueden ver (Está en inglés).
Espero sus opiniones.

In economics, there is no Hippocratic oath: First, do no harm. If there were, world leaders would be in serious violation of it. With the noble purpose of saving lives, they are deliberately throttling the global economy. The plan is to put economic activity in a state of suspended animation for weeks or months, get past the worst of the Covid-19 pandemic, and then resuscitate the patient. Necessary? Probably. Dangerous? Undoubtedly.
Because this has never been done before at this scale, there are no white-haired elders to guide us. We are going to have to invent the plan as we go, recalibrating as facts emerge. Just as overwhelmed doctors must choose which patients to save and which to let go, we will need to decide which sectors, which companies, and which workers are most in need of and most deserving of a rescue.
And eventually we’ll need to make agonizing trade-offs between saving lives and saving livings. The more people are saved from the coronavirus through draconian shutdowns, the more livelihoods will be broken, in some cases irreparably. President Trump said on March 24 that he would like the U.S. economy “opened up and just raring to go by Easter,” which is April 12. However, the more we ease up on quarantines and social distancing to allow the economy to breathe, the more patients will have their breath stolen by this frightening lung disease. Martin Eichenbaum of Northwestern University and others calculate in a new working paper that the U.S. could save 500,000 lives through serious containment measures vs. the base case of doing nothing—but at the cost of knocking 10% off economic output in 2020. No doubt, it’s going to be ugly.
Here is one principle for policymakers to consider as they make decisions on our behalf: If you must do harm to the economy, please make it reversible. Hurt, but don’t kill. Bend it, but do not break it.
The sudden stop could cause hundreds of thousands of small and medium-size enterprises to go out of business—to break. Some will quickly reemerge, which is fine. But in many cases the loss will be permanent. High-functioning teams that have taken years to assemble will break up. Synergies will be lost. Workers who thrived in a particular niche will flounder, seeking jobs from new employers who don’t understand who they are or what they can do.
“Much of the information in our society is embedded within corporations. The bankruptcy of an enterprise leads to the loss of organizational and informational capital—a negative shock to the economy,” the Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz said in 2014 in a meeting of the International Economic Association by the Dead Sea in Jordan, where he gave the presidential address.
The answer, of course: Keep companies intact as much as possible. Restarting the economy after Covid-19 recedes will be easier if the enterprises that make and sell things are ready to go. It’s also a kindness: “Losing a business to failure—especially one that has been built up over time—is a devastating blow to the owners and their families, who are often involved,” economist David Levy, himself the chairman of a family business, the Jerome Levy Forecasting Center in Mount Kisco, N.Y., writes in an email. “Dreams destroyed, fortunes destroyed, lives destroyed.”
So what are we to do? Well, one elegant way to keep companies afloat is Germany’s Kurzarbeit, or short work time, in which the government subsidizes the salaries of workers who would otherwise be laid off. Kurzarbeit helped Germany snap back from the financial crisis faster than any other European country, says Markus Brunnermeier, a German-born economist at Princeton. Several Scandinavian countries have followed Germany’s lead, and the United Kingdom announced a similar program on March 20.
An alternative is to lend money to businesses freely and cheaply until the crisis passes. The Federal Reserve is all over that when it comes to big companies, financing their commercial paper and announcing on March 23 that it will even buy corporate bonds directly—a major departure for the central bank. (“Wow, just wow,” George Rusnak, co-head of fixed income strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, said on Bloomberg Television.)
Getting help to smaller companies, which rely on banks rather than the markets to raise money, is a tougher problem. The $2 trillion bill that was nearing congressional approval on March 25 includes $350 billion for lending to businesses through banks involved with the Small Business Administration. Another idea, from Brunnermeier, is for the Fed to charge banks a negative interest rate—that is, pay them, via the discount window—for rolling over their loans to small and medium enterprises.
In an ordinary recession, encouraging banks to “evergreen” their loans—give new money to debtors so they can pay interest on their old loans—would be considered malpractice. It would be viewed as wasting precious capital on propping up zombies instead of directing it to new, job-creating investment. But this is not an ordinary recession. The companies that need help are not zombies. Keeping them afloat is not sinful but essential. “It’s a 180-degree change in mindset,” Brunnermeier says.
Stiglitz, the Nobel laureate, who teaches at Columbia, advocates a “super Chapter 11” that would avert mass insolvency. In a 2010 paper, he and the University of Warwick’s Marcus Miller wrote that the bankruptcy code “is essentially designed for idiosyncratic events in which assets may be disposed of at going market prices,” which is emphatically not the case in a crisis in which no one wants to catch a falling knife. Under a super Chapter 11, they wrote, a government-sponsored institution “would consolidate the troubled businesses and decide simultaneously—and this is the key—how all of them would be resolved in a common procedure.” That procedure could involve, for example, swapping debt for shares across the board.
Deborah Lucas of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology has spent most of her career studying the federal government as a financial institution. She was chief economist of the Congressional Budget Office and now directs the Golub Center for Finance and Policy at the MIT Sloan School of Management. “You don’t want to blow up viable, going concerns, and that’s the biggest risk in the current situation,” she says. “It’s worth paying a lot to avoid that.”
Companies should not get direct aid such as grants, she says, because any company will take cash that’s offered, even if the managers know their situation is unsustainable. Loans work better—managers won’t usually take a loan they don’t expect to pay back, because a default could land them in bankruptcy court. Based on her experience in the financial crisis, Lucas says it’s a mistake to put conditions on loans, such as requiring that employers retain workers. Many managers would rather pass up the money than tie their hands, she predicts.
Bailouts aren’t popular. When I touched on this theme in an earlier article, I got reactions on Twitter such as, “A morally bankrupt money grab for the investor class.” The Left wants help for workers, not capitalists. And there’s a segment of the libertarian Right, including many economists, that says the free market does a fine job of redeploying resources—workers, machines, patents, trademarks, etc.—to their highest and best use when a company fails. In the financial crisis, “instead of bailing out banks, U.S. policymakers should have allowed the standard process of bankruptcy to operate,” Harvard economist Jeffrey Miron wrote in the libertarian Cato Journal in 2009.
So, yes, individuals need help, too. Beefing up unemployment benefits and extending their duration is a no-brainer. Forbearance on debt repayment also makes sense. It’s not only companies, after all, but households that should be kept from breaking. Meanwhile, the process of rescuing companies can go horribly astray. Ben Hunt, co-founder and chief investment officer of Second Foundation Partners, calculates that stock buybacks by the four biggest airlines exceeded their free cash flow from 2014 through 2019—enriching executives and shareholders but leaving the companies unprepared for a crisis. “The raccoons and high-functioning sociopaths are out in force on this, looking to get their private losses socialized and their private gains locked in,” Hunt wrote on March 19 on his website, Epsilon Theory.
It’s reasonable to impose conditions on the aid companies get, as the new bill does. Hunt would put tight caps on executive compensation; fire and replace board chairs; require the companies to raise money by selling shares, even at today’s unfavorable prices; and prohibit buybacks and dividends until the government loans are repaid. Taking part ownership in companies in return for emergency aid—as Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has discretion to demand—would give taxpayers some of the upside, at the cost of edging the U.S. a tad closer to Bernie Sanders-style socialism. It’s also reasonable to pick and choose which industries to rescue. Airlines may be vital infrastructure, but casinos and cruise lines are not.
In keeping with the philosophy of bend-don’t-break, aid should be concentrated on the most breakable kinds of companies, which tend to be ones that are light on physical assets. Once the employees of asset-light companies disperse, there is little or no value left. Small businesses, which employ almost half of the U.S. workforce, are more likely than big ones to be asset-light. Companies with valuable physical assets can bounce back relatively easily. The failure of a shale-oil producer does no harm to the hydrocarbons still in the ground. Cruise lines still have their ships, airlines have their jets, and casinos still have their glitzy gambling halls, which can quickly resume operation once the virus all-clear sounds.
Politics should play as little role as possible in bailout decisions. Easy to say, hard to enforce. In 2008-09, when the Bush and Obama administrations were trying to rescue General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC, “we worked to fend off attempts by stakeholders on all sides of the issue to meddle in granular decisions over which dealerships to close or which plants to shut down,” Brian Deese, Steven Shafran, and Dan Jester, who concocted the plans, wrote in a chapter of First Responders, a new book written and edited by financial crisis insiders. The lobbyists are once again out in force, representing everyone from pig farmers to theater owners to exercise-clothing manufacturers. The Trump administration agreed to independent oversight of a fund to support companies.
Bailouts of companies and aid to individuals will be fantastically expensive. There’s a good chance that the stimulus plan that was under negotiation on Capitol Hill on March 24 will have to be followed by more. But that’s because the need has never been greater. Think of the government-ordered shutdown of the economy as a heart attack—or to use a more timely metaphor, severe acute respiratory syndrome. Treatment must be aggressive to succeed. Halfway measures and economizing don’t cut it.
Whatever is done needs to be done soon. Layoffs have already begun. The more damage businesses suffer, the harder it will be for them to bounce back. As Trump’s March 24 statement goes to show, the political pressure to resume normal economic activity is beginning to intensify. The surest way to maintain support for the restrictions that protect the public from Covid-19 is to alleviate the damage that those restrictions do to the economy.
(Updates throughout with details of stimulus bill.)

OP: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-25/big-ideas-to-save-the-economy-from-bailouts-to-super-chapter-11
submitted by ElPrimeroDeLosSeis to chile [link] [comments]

Ex Neverwinter Dev Tweets about Loot Boxes.

Source: https://twitter.com/XCK3D/status/1129421457203744768
I worked on Neverwinter, the free-to-play MMO that came out several years ago. Many F2P game systems are lifted directly from the gambling industry, so let me give you an idea of what supporting that means for video games, gamers, and developers.
Loot boxes in games are a familiar topic for a lot of people, but they often discuss the wrong angle. Most gamers comment on how annoying they are, but few people address how harmful they are.
First, to deconstruct what a loot box is for those who don't do F2P games: It's a package you open that has a % chance you'll receive one of a number of cosmetic or gameplay-altering rewards when you open it. You pay for the privilege to open the loot box.
This pay-for-potential-rewards structure is lifted directly from casino gambling — slot machines in particular. In fact, most of the win rates and feedback systems for loot boxes are lifted directly from slot machine design. Here are some aspects that are similar:
Pay-to-play
Sounds and visuals designed to heighten excitement and anticipation
Low initial investment
High accessibility
Intentionally stingy rewards
Highly broadcast high-end rewards
Let's break these down.
Pay-to-play means you're locked out of content until you drop some money, and that does some weird psychological things I'm not qualified to talk about. Regardless, it sets a barrier to entry, but it's designed to be low enough (penny slots, anyone?) that anyone can play.
Sounds and visuals play a huge part in making loot boxes. They have a specific cadence built into them which increases tension over a short time, and then they flash pretty lights and play exciting sounds. Slot machines perfected it, and now video games crank it to 11.
Low initial investment is incredibly important for gambling because it tricks your brain into thinking you're not spending much money, even if you end up spending dozens or hundreds in the end. This ties in well with the intentionally stingy reward cycle, which I'll get to.
Accessibility in slot machines is walking up and popping a penny in, but accessibility in loot boxes is even more insidious; you spend some time playing the game, you get a free taste, and then you have to pay to play once you get that initial adrenaline rush.
Intentionally stingy rewards keep people coming back, and spending more money over time by constantly teasing the possibility of a greater reward. You see this with slots, and you see it with the possibility of winning a sweet new skin, only to end up with ugly poop.
Highly broadcast high-end rewards are things like the bright flashing lights, loud bells, and other aspects of winning you see from slots. You get the same thing for free in video games because people want to show off their shiny loot, and they even make videos about it.
So. What all these reward systems do is give you a trickle of excitement with the occasional punctuation of winning a little bit, and that system is incredibly addictive for many people. Let me give a couple of examples.
You hear about people with gambling addictions blowing thousands of dollars at a casino. These people get addicted to the risk/reward cycle of gambling; it literally makes happy juices squirt into their brain. The EXACT same happens with loot boxes, and there are metrics.
Those metrics aren't just "this person is spending X." No. When I was on Neverwinter, I heard a conversation about one of our highest spenders who was a single mother of 3-4 kids in Kentucky. The people making the game knew who this individual was and how much she spent monthly
That may not sound super terrible, until you hear that this single mother was spending over a thousand dollars a month on in-game items, people knew her salary range, and could literally stick a pin in a map with her physical address.
It's important for people running these games to have metrics and info like this so they can tailor the experience to you. This is where video game loot boxes are actually more insidious than casino gambling; they don't just take your money, they tailor your personal experience.
Companies who produce games with loot boxes tailor your experience so that the amount they make off you is maximized. For most people this is pennies per month, but for some people they're literally tailoring the game to take advantage of your gambling addiction.
The killer thing is that, without whales — without the people with gambling addictions — these systems fail. If you've ever done any reading on how airline ticket pricing works, it's a similar business model. A small number of high spenders keep the whole thing afloat.
So, to get back to the Unity link: Supporting the gambling industry is lucrative, but also INCREDIBLY unethical. You're supporting a system designed to literally, not figuratively, LITERALLY prey on the addictions of a relatively small number of people.
All those talks at GDC a few years ago about monetization? Preying on addictions. Loot boxes in Overwatch, Apex Legends, Fortnite? Preying on addictions. Monetization and marketing experts? Preying-on-addictions experts.
Interestingly, this is the same system Valve uses to exploit artists who make skins and items for TF2 and DOTA2. A few "lucky" people get their items selected (by a black box selection process) which strings others along to keep creating free content for them.
They pay for none of the labor involved in making skins for DOTA characters, but reap 70% of all profits, which equates to millions of dollars per year. Good times.
Anyway, this is why I'll never work on another F2P game again, and this is why seeing Unity openly talking about how they're supporting the gambling industry makes me never want to touch Unity's tools again.
submitted by arcticfox4 to Neverwinter [link] [comments]

The Case Of Omar Radad (Rewrite)

THE CASE OF OMAR RADAD The Omar Raddad Affair was a highly publicised criminal trial in Mougins, France in 1991. After the murder of Ghislaine Marchal, Marchal's gardener Omar Raddad was arrested. Defended at his trial by Jacques Vergès, Raddad was convicted 1994, and sentenced to 18 years in prison. Raddad always maintained his innocence. Raddad received a partial pardon from French President Jacques Chirac in 1996 at the request of Moroccan King Hassan II, which reduced his sentence to 4 years and 8 months, and was released from prison in 1998.
The misspelled sentence "Omar m'a tuer" ("Omar killed me"), found written in blood at the crime scene, became a widely used phrase in French society during the 1990s. The last word of the sentence is not properly conjugated; it should read: "Omar m'a tuée". Skeptics contended that this is an odd mistake for a native French speaker to make. The mistake is understandable, however, since both tuer and tuée are pronounced [ty.e]. The case was the subject of the 2011 film Omar m'a tuer by Roschdy Zem.
Description of the events
The facts
Born Ghislaine de Renty, Ghislaine Marchal was the daughter of an industrialist who was engaged in the Resistance during the Second World War and died in deportation. Divorced from her first husband, with whom she had a son, in 1991 she was the wealthy widow of Jean-Pierre Marchal, owner of a famous company that supplied equipment for automobiles[1] , and sister-in-law of the president of the Paris Bar Council Bernard de Bigault du Granrut. She split her time between her main house in Switzerland and her villa La Chamade, which she had built in the hills of Mougins[citation needed].
Ghislaine Marchal disappeared
On Sunday 23 June 1991, around 11:48am, Ghislaine Marchal, having just got out of the shower, is chatting on the phone with her friend Erika S. She has planned for her friend to come to La Chamade for lunch on monday morning. Ghislaine Marchal tells her she is in a hurry as she needs to get ready to have lunch at her friends' Mr and Mrs K.'s house at 1pm. They end their conversation at 11:50. This will be the last time that her voice was heard by those close to her[citation needed].
Surprised that she hadn't arrived, her friends called her in vain several times from 13:30 onwards. Around 6, Colette K. drove to La Chamade. She rang the doorbell but nobody answered, nor did they to another phone call she made that evening.[citation needed]
On Monday 24 June, Erika S. arrived at 11:30, as planned. She rang, rang again, called, all in vain. Alerted by Mrs Erika S. and Mrs Colette K., a third friend, Francine P., sent an employee of the security company to the house in the early afternoon. The house, dark and silent, shows no trace of a break in, the blinds had only been drawn in the bedroom; on the unmade bed were glasses, a diary; the breakfast tray is in the kitchen. The keys are in the door, which remains unlocked, the alarm is not activated. It seemed as though Ghislaine Marchal had just woken up, but she wasn't there.[citation needed] Throughout the afternoon, the searching begins; the security company employee returns with Francine P. and her attendant. They are quickly joined by Ghislaine Marchal's doctor. They find jewelry, an open hand bag, which doesn't contain any cash, but no trace of the owner.[citation needed]
The cellar door is blocked from inside
Finally, on 24 June 1991 in the evening, the police are alerted and arrive at the house. After searching the house, they become interested in an annexe to the main house. A flight of stairs descends to the cellar, which had not been visited as of yet, and of which the metal door is locked. After unlocking it, the door would still not open any more than 2 cm. One officer pushed with all his might as another feeds his arm through the gap and identifies a folding bed placed against the door on the inside. He manages to violently push it backwards: the door opens a little bit more, but a metal tube, placed on the ground perpendicularly to the door, firmly blocks it on its hinges. The door was warped and twisted by the officer's pushing, enabling him to get a leg through the gap and ''kicking the tube several times''. The final kicks shifts the tube, enabling him to open the door.[citation needed] In January 1992, investigators note that '' the pressure on the door made the tube move, leaving a semi circular imprint on the cement floor''.[citation needed]
Discovery of the body
At the back of the cellar, Ghislaine Marchal is lying face down, her legs pointing to the bag wall, her arms stretched out in front of her on the ground, dressed in only a blood stained bath robe pulled up to above her waist.[citation needed]
The doctor's first observations on the evening of the 24th, and the autopsy of 28 June[citation needed] revealed severe injuries: 5 violent blows to the head, carried out with a rafter, ''to kill and not to knock her out''[citation needed] which caused open cuts on her head and cerebral edema, a V shaped cut on her throat, which missed the trachea and the big arteries of the neck; ten cuts on her thorax and on the abdomen, caused by a ''double edged tapered blade'' measuring 15 to 20cm long, and maximum of 2cm wide, which provoked an eventration and three cuts into the liver; two into her left thigh, one of which produced a thin stream of blood perpendicular to the axle of the leg; the victim thus lay on the floor immobile after having received this injury, for at least long enough for the blood to coagulate, approximately 7 minutes. Injuries and fractures of the hands, a phalange almost ripped off, suggest that she looked to protect herself by bringing her hands to her face, several scrapes on her arms and legs, in particular on the soles of her feed and the back of her knees, as well as traces of dust and cement on her robe suggest that the victim had been dragged on the ground.
Forensic experts note that it had not been possible to determine the order in which the blows were delivered. None of them were immediately fatal, but were after approximately 15 to 30 minutes of agony. Captain Georges Cenci notes that the assassin seemed 'determined, but also clumsy in his movements'.
doctor Jean Pagliuzza, forensic doctor, who had been consulted by the defense lawyers accepted to give his advice to journalist Eve Livet after the gardener was sentenced. He thinks that the murder could have happened in a rapid sequence of only 3 to four minutes. In this type of attack, the first blows have the intention of neutralising the victim by stunning her. After this, the blows carried out with a white weapon follow, very quickly. 'Taking into account the force of the blows, her aggressor was a man [...] he was left handed'. He indicates that the lowest injury was the first to be made. 'The blade hit higher and higher the more the victim collapsed'. The V shaped injury on her neck 'is often found in this type of murder' because of the lateral movement of the head, looking to escape the blows to the neck. The expert specifies that the attacker must certainly have received blood on him. Given the way the blood flowed following this, he estimates that the victim never got up; she died 'rapidly from bleeding'. If she had stood up, the haemorrhage of the liver would have filled the abdominal cavity, something which was not observed by forensic scientists.
Discovery of the inscriptions 'Omar killed me'
The cellar's metal door opens onto a hallway. On the left 'Omar m'a tueé' is written in blood, in well formed letters, one meter above ground level, on a locked white door leading to the wine cellar. A bloody trace is visible under the inscription. In front of the metal door, at the back of the main room, the sentence is partially written again on the door of the boiler room: 'Omar m'a t'. This 'second inscription' as the investigators called it, lower than the first, is barely legible. It is situated on the boiler room's side of the door, but because the door is blocked open, it is facing the entrance of the room and not the boiler room, where the body is.
Who wrote the messages?
If Mrs. Marchal is the author of the message, it points to Omar Raddad. On the other hand, if the message is from the killer, it can not come from Omar Raddad, whom one would not expect to incriminate himself. The killer would therefore have to have arranged the scene so Ghislaine Marchal would be assumed to have authored this false accusation of her gardener.
The wording of the message may seem strange at first: would someone write that they were killed when they were still alive? Judge Renard finds the sentence "weird" [25].
As for the grammatical error, would a cultured woman like Ghislaine Marchal have made this mistake? Several documents indicate that sometimes made errors in her writing, specifically confusing the the past participle with the infinitive [26], [27], for example, she wrote “pay” on a bill already settled, or “I have to water the flowers” (instead of “I have watered the flowers”?). However, this point is strongly contested by the defense and by journalists [28], [29], [30].
Captain Cenci, Coutton J. and the public prosecutor Farret believe that the mistake is a strike against the accused [31]. But according to the graphologist Françoise De Ricci, this kind of common mistake cannot be used to identify the writer (see below) [32].
Are the messages in Ghislaine Marchal’s handwriting?
The first forensic examination of the writings was carried out by Gilles Giessner in July-August, at the request of the investigating judge. He compared the letters on the doors with those of the crosswords from the victim and various other documents. The expert indicates that the letters of the two doors are all from the same person, and that for the first message, this person was kneeling, while she was lying for the second message. The destructured side (messy side?) suggests to him a physiological weakening. The writer “could not have moved to write the end of the second message, as that is where the body was found,” Giessner said, apparently ignoring the fact that the body was not found in front of that door.
During the trial, G. Giessner specified that he "highlighted the total concordance of the letters with those of the writings of Mrs. Marchal". Then, pressed by the defense, he conceded: "It is two-thirds surely the writing of the victim, a third not" [35]
At the request of the defense, a second opinion was given to Ms. Buisson-Debar. It confirms the conclusions of his colleague [10] [36], but not without some contradictions. The second report states that out of ten letters in the first inscription, only five resembled the writing of the victim [37].
In 1999, a new writing expert was brought on by Mr. Gauthier and Ms. Dumont. Presented by the defense in support of a request to review the conviction, this expert concluded that the writing was not that of the victim. [38] The the appeals board (revision board?) then asked Françoise De Ricci and Anne Bisotti for further expertise. They stated that "writings" made in such dissimilar conditions can not be "reasonably compared" [24].
Françoise Bouzon-Thiam, author of a book on the case, observes that the bloody letters have abnormally short downstrokes as though they were interrupted (could also be “hanging” or “suspended) while the letters in Ghislaine Marchal’s crosswords have elongated downstrokes. The contrast is especially clear for the M, A and R. She believes that the letters in the messages reveal them to have been written by the killer.
Who blocked the metal door and how?
Captain Georges Cenci says that the metal door to the cellar is "the only way to access it, and to forbid access" [40]. Given this, and with the victim being the only person present at the scene, she is the only person who could have barricaded herself there. The defense never seems to have contested the first point, only trying to show that the murderer could have gone out through the metal access door while still causing a blockage
As previously mentioned, there was a metal pipe at the base of the door which blocked it from opening. However, the pipe was very thin and there was a gap between the bottom of the door and the ground. The pipe could pass easily under the door, if it was lying flat. How, under these circumstances, could someone use it to stop the door?
In February 1992, during an on-site visit by investigators, magistrates and lawyers, the investigation concludes that Ms. Marchal placed the metal tube on top of a wooden beam which had the effect of lifting it from the floor on the end that was against the door, which prevented the door from opening.
Defense lawyers contested this and argued that the police did not notice this beam on June 24 [43]. They also claimed to have demonstrated that it was possible to press the folding bed against the open door so that when you exit and close it slowly, the bed is drops to block the door from opening. The iron bar could have fallen when the police pushed the bed back [44].
Ève Livet says that the gap under the door is reduced near the hinge because the floor is not level. If the metal bar was near this hinge, its thickness would have been sufficient to block the door, as indicated by movement tracks on the ground. She also thinks that the bed could have momentarily jammed on a large PVC pipe located across the hallway
Detective Roger-Marc Moreau says he has found a way to easily block the door from the outside under the same conditions Captain Cenci believes that it is impossible because of a raised area under the door and that Mr. Moreau never came to see it in person
More:
The defense’s theory of the crime:
The defense argues that the the violence and the large number of blows show "an almost passionate relentlessness, the expression of an lukewarm (warmed-over?) hatred (the phrase appears to literally mean “reheated” and usually refers to food) which doesn’t fit with personality of Omar Raddad and his good relationship with his employer (see below). Mr. Vergès also points to the fact that no sign of any scratches were found on Omar's hands, nor any blood on his clothes. Since Captain Cenci admits that the crime was not premeditated, Omar would not have had any gloves or extra clothes with him. How could he have avoiding staining his clothes with blood? (see below) [63]?
Additionally, the gravity of the wounds Ghislaine Marchal suffered makes all the physical actions attributed to her unlikely (writing the “right burst” without supporting herself in any way, moving multiple times, blocking the door).
Mr. Vergès also noted that the body of the victim was not found in front of the second inscription. At trial, Me Leclerc, lawyer for the prosecution, said she "pushed herself to write these last words with a dying hand” which suggests that she had written the message in her last breath, just before dying [64]. But she was actually discovered 1.50 m behind this door. The defense also argued that the splayed position of her limbs and her bathrobe being bunched up on the top of her body suggest that she was dragged to that position by her feet.
Another revealing detail for the defense: a clear trail of blood running down the victims inner thigh, perpendicular to the ground and the line of the leg. It would have taken 7 minutes for this blood to coagulate, so if the victim had stood up to do all that was said, that blood would have flowed in another direction, or would have been smeared by the movement of her thighs. The victim therefore could not have moved after her attacker left. [66]. That wound, like a dagger's blow, could have been done to make sure the victim was no longer reacting. "A procedure (move?) known to all hunters" [67]. In addition, the bathrobe was not pierced by this strike, so the injury was inflicted while the garment was already pushed up Marchal’s body [68].
Finally, the thesis of the hedge trimmer, or a kitchen knife as murder weapon does not fit with the description of a tapered double-edged blade, 2 cm wide [69]. Besides, would the gardener have been stupid enough to put away the key to the cellar with the gardening tools, as if to incriminate himself?
Defenders of Omar Raddad presented several scenarios for this crime, with deep divergences between them. [71]
At first, the defense lawyers, Mr. Girard and Mr. Baudoux, admitted that the writing was indeed that of Madame Marchal, who would have written under duress even torture. This is the "diabolical scenario" [71]. However, the experts say that the injuries of the victim are not due to torture, and this argument was rejected by all parties [72].
A new defense lawyer, Mr. Guidicelli, does not believe in the "diabolical scenario"; he does not dispute the report of the first graphologists, but thinks that Madame Marchal was mistaken about the identity of her attacker [73]. This hypothesis was also considered by the investigators (see below). This “friction” between the defense lawyers led Mr. Guidicelli to withdraw from the case [10] [74]
Then Master Vergès took over the case. He formally challenged the conclusions of the graphologists, and believed it was the killer who wrote the message "with his gloved hand", dragged the body of his victim into the boiler room, and likewise wrote the second message with the intention of making it appear that Ghislaine Marchal had written both. This is the “staging theory", which would be presented at the trial [75]. Faced with the impossibility of getting his three lawyers to agree, Omar Raddad"reluctantly" separated from Girard and Baudoux 10 days before the start of the trial [76].
Variation of the staging theory: the murderer(s) could have carried or dragged the unconscious to the doors to make her write the inscriptions by dipping her finger in own blood and guiding her hand. Her head hanging down pressed against the “first door,” leaving the blood stain that appeared below the message. The murderer would have believed that the investigators could identify the fingerprints, which was not possible because the marks were “slid" (possibly “smeared”?). Under this theory, it would be the killer’s writing, because when one guides the hand of someone else to make them write something, it is the handwriting of the one who controls the hand which appears [77] .
Detective Roger-Marc Moreau and the expert in writing Danièle Dumont developed the theory that the incomplete inscription was first drawn by holding the hand of the victim’s corpse. This was no sufficiently legible, so the killers would have written the second inscription themselves, more clearly and in large letters.
Regarding the staging hypothesis, the prosecution raised a question: Who knew that Omar Raddad was going to be near the crime scene that day? The gardener never worked on Sundays as this particular day was also a Muslim religious holiday day [78], he would be assumed to have stayed at home with his family. It is highly unlikely that anyone would have expected him to be at Francine P.’s house that day. Captain Cenci believed that the only two people who knew he was there were Francine P. and Omar Raddad himself [79]. Unless the inscriptions are referring to another Omar.
Some Additional Important Facts : ·Omar Can't Write Or Read , He Can Read Only His Name.
·There Was A Housekeeper That Was Jealous Of The Good Relation Between Omar & Ghiselaine.
·Omar Love To Go & Play In Casino , And There Were Rumors That He Paid Prostitutes For Sex & But Was Later Clear Off.
· There Was Rumor That Omar Was In Need Of Money , And Will Often Ask For His Salary Before The Due Date.
·Omar Radad Would Go On Hunger Strike For Months Often When He Was Imprisoned But Was Force To Break As He Didn't Want To Die , He Just Wanted To Be Prove Innocent And Be Free.
·Omar Radad Wrote A Book About Being The Murder Which Name Is "Pourquoi Moi ?" (Why Me ?)
·A Book Was Written By The Officer (Capitaine Georges Cenci) Who Was In Charge Of The Case Which Name Is : Omar L'a Tueé (Omar Killed Her) & It's Free. (But It's In French Link : http://omarlatuee.free.findex.php?post/2014/02/Lire-gratuitement-Omar-l-a-Tu%C3%A9e-%21
· The Entire Judicial Chronology Of The Case Of Omar Radad : (Can Be Translate In English Don't Worry)
http://omarlatuee.free.findex.php?post/2011/06/Toute-la-chronologie-judiciaire-de-l-affaire-Omar-Raddad
Source : https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Omar_Raddad_Affair
Photo Of "Omar M'a Tuer" : https://images.app.goo.gl/s5C9QwtoLPxdskxL8
Photo of Scrambled : https://images.app.goo.gl/K5ATy32pGH9Pzek7A
Photo Of Ghiselaine Marchal : https://images.app.goo.gl/fP4Deug8AHx6ojL59
Ghiselaine Marchal's Body On Crime Scene : https://images.app.goo.gl/66np23hPBBKu4aPAA
Crime Scene : https://images.app.goo.gl/3uKTD4k8LgdtS4pY9
Crime Scene : https://images.app.goo.gl/9iF4fJFFnUZ2RCJ18
What's Your Thoughts About The Case ? Do You Think Omar Radad Is Guiltly ?
submitted by Team_Boss00 to UnresolvedMysteries [link] [comments]

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